3rd Age/Spirit shields/Phats Discussion

[halo475]

Phats maybe better than easters, but disk are alot alot safer, they are rising slower which is a good thing and they are probably rarer than pumpkins. If you get 15m less a month with a disk then your partyhat then use the spare 250m to get that 15m. Which is doable in 1 day if you know what your doing or 5 days if you don't.

[Guest TrixStar]

The fact that the new skill is F2P and a character development skill makes me think it WON'T be a money sink.

[Master_Smither]

Someone asked if partyhats were a good investment on the RSOF so I'll just re-post what I said:

 

Partyhats are an AWFUL investment compared to edibles/disks right now. Why?

 

1) Edibles are updating in GE price at a rate now comparable to partyhats. Easter eggs are now even going up faster.

2) Edibles and disks take up much less cash, meaning you still have a ton of cash to merchant with.

3) Partyhats are once again are dipping in relation to edibles/disks. At least purple-red are.

 

(Taking their average price over the past 30 days)

 

Easter Egg: 30 Days: +34.5% of 50M = 17.25M

Disk: 30 Days: +23.8% of 37.5M = 8.9M

Pumpkin: 30 Days: +24.0% of 46M = 11M

 

Purple Phat: 30 Days: +7.6% of 260M = 19.76M (versus 1x easter at 17.25M)

Yellow Phat: 30 Days: +8.1% of 280M = 22.68M (versus 2x easter at 34.5M)

Red Phat: 30 Days: +7.0% of 308M = 21.56M (versus 3x easter at 51.7M or 1x disk + 1x easter at 26.15M)

 

From a short term, fast cash(relatively) stand point, yes partyhats suck as an investment compared to edibles. However, edibles won't go over 100M GE before they crash because they simply are not worth that much. However, partyhats can go about 100M from where they are now before crashing and maybe even becoming bought out again. Partyhats will last longer than edibles do and you can wear them :P

 

@TrixStar: That's very likely, unfortunately.

[Assume Nothing]

I see every edible and forced edible (ie mint cakes) as 'hot potatoes', you don't keep them, you just sweeten a deal with em. Partyhats always have a natural demand, edibles don't. Edibles will sink rock bottom like the way black flowers are doing now.

[MerchantInTheDark]

You can't compare edibles to mints or black flowers because they're fundamentally different. Rares will ALWAYS rise in the long run, they are only temporarily affected by short term supply and demand.

[timmmmm83]

You can't compare edibles to mints or black flowers because they're fundamentally different. Rares will ALWAYS rise in the long run, they are only temporarily affected by short term supply and demand.

But you can't compare wearable rares to edible rares either imo.

Most people buy rares to show off, with wearable rares the point is easily made.

Edible rares are an entirely different story (like stated on this thread multiple times)

 

Also: "In the long run rares will always rise" you say, but Jagex can make it so hard to make money that rares can even drop in price in the long run.

If nobody can earn 100m, how are they supposed to pay 100m for a partyhat (even if it's getting rarer every day)?

I think the removal of free trade took away the inevitable rise of phats in the long run.

[Bladewing]

You can't compare edibles to mints or black flowers because they're fundamentally different. Rares will ALWAYS rise in the long run, they are only temporarily affected by short term supply and demand.

You can compare them, because both are functioning currently NOT as their "normal" use. Pumpkins and Easters both used to be about half the price of Santa hats, but now they have been assigned value beyond that normal scope. Eventually the house of cards will collapse and they will return to their old value.

 

Correction: Rares will always rise in the long run relative to other items.

 

If nobody can earn 100m, how are they supposed to pay 100m for a partyhat (even if it's getting rarer every day)?

I think the removal of free trade took away the inevitable rise of phats in the long run.

It is FAR easier to earn the money for a partyhat now than it was a few years ago. It is conceivable to make 3m an hour, which if paying "street prices", it'll take you about 130 hours to buy a purple partyhat at that rate. A few years ago, you topped out at about 400k/hour (excluding 91 rc, which was around 900k/hour), which if paying the 90m a purple was worth at that time, would take you over 200 hours.

[timmmmm83]

 

If nobody can earn 100m, how are they supposed to pay 100m for a partyhat (even if it's getting rarer every day)?

I think the removal of free trade took away the inevitable rise of phats in the long run.

It is FAR easier to earn the money for a partyhat now than it was a few years ago. It is conceivable to make 3m an hour, which if paying "street prices", it'll take you about 130 hours to buy a purple partyhat at that rate. A few years ago, you topped out at about 400k/hour (excluding 91 rc, which was around 900k/hour), which if paying the 90m a purple was worth at that time, would take you over 200 hours.

You forgot to quote the first sentence:

"Also: "In the long run rares will always rise" you say, but Jagex can make it so hard to make money that rares can even drop in price in the long run."

 

You are correct, making cash these days is relatively easier, but you can't tell it will stay like this forever.

[Bladewing]

You forgot to quote the first sentence:

"Also: "In the long run rares will always rise" you say, but Jagex can make it so hard to make money that rares can even drop in price in the long run."

 

You are correct, making cash these days is relatively easier, but you can't tell it will stay like this forever.

I didn't include it because I didn't feel a need to address it. Since you want me to, here's a brief explanation. The nominal value (i.e. how many coins it's worth) of the partyhats may fall, but their real value (i.e. that they are worth more than other items in the game) will only increase, since supply is ever dwindling.

 

Making money will always be faster now than it was three years ago. Even if coins are "nerfed" and you only get 1 coin for every 100 coins you used to (e.g. a nature rune is 3 coins, an Armadyl godsword is one million coins) - which would cause "average" income rates to drop from 500k/hour to 5k an hour - the true value created (in terms of potential xp or whatever) will be far higher because we have new items that multiply our productivity. This is called capital. New teleports, better weapons, better armor, better prayers, better potions, familiars, and still others greatly improve what one hour of playing yields. If a purple partyhat drops to 10 million coins, I will guarantee you that your Armadyl Godsword will be less than 3 million, your Bandos chestplate will be less than 500k, etc.

 

For more reading on this subject: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_versus_nominal_value_%28economics%29

[Assume Nothing]

Hmmm; Is it true that "If partyhats are rising, the market is rising".

 

It seems to be the best trend setting item there is, that applies to the whole market. 2008 Summer crash; Pvp dropped many items and partyhats were falling. Hmm.

[timmmmm83]

You forgot to quote the first sentence:

"Also: "In the long run rares will always rise" you say, but Jagex can make it so hard to make money that rares can even drop in price in the long run."

 

You are correct, making cash these days is relatively easier, but you can't tell it will stay like this forever.

I didn't include it because I didn't feel a need to address it. Since you want me to, here's a brief explanation. The nominal value (i.e. how many coins it's worth) of the partyhats may fall, but their real value (i.e. that they are worth more than other items in the game) will only increase, since supply is ever dwindling.

 

Making money will always be faster now than it was three years ago. Even if coins are "nerfed" and you only get 1 coin for every 100 coins you used to (e.g. a nature rune is 3 coins, an Armadyl godsword is one million coins) - which would cause "average" income rates to drop from 500k/hour to 5k an hour - the true value created (in terms of potential xp or whatever) will be far higher because we have new items that multiply our productivity. This is called capital. New teleports, better weapons, better armor, better prayers, better potions, familiars, and still others greatly improve what one hour of playing yields. If a purple partyhat drops to 10 million coins, I will guarantee you that your Armadyl Godsword will be less than 3 million, your Bandos chestplate will be less than 500k, etc.

 

For more reading on this subject: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_versus_nominal_value_%28economics%29

 

That is correct, sir. :^_^:

[JeRambo]

Easters > Purple right now. :o

 

Saw someone buying an easter for 300m today. Quite happy I got mine for 160m. Now I just need to get enough cash and buy purple for easter+cash. ;)

 

-Jeremy.

[Star_Fox]

Easters > Purple right now. :o

 

Saw someone buying an easter for 300m today. Quite happy I got mine for 160m. Now I just need to get enough cash and buy purple for easter+cash. ;)

 

-Jeremy.

 

easters been doing pretty well for a couple of months. Its right between purple and green so if you're lucky, you might get a chance at a green + junk for your easter.

[r4ngewarlord]

Any ideas on wha will happen to santas, they don't seem to be moving at the moment :P

[joker2022]

Everything is staying even right now.

 

But if a new skill comes out (monery drainer or item) everything will plummet for awhile.

 

People are anticpating the skill, and thats why rares have dropped. Since the new skill didn't come out on the 11th, people are confused and holding.

 

But I suspect as the new skill comes out, they willl drop. So I would invest in commodites right now, instead of rares.

 

Then once the rare crash is over, buy rares.

[Danqazmlp]

I really cannot wait for Edibles to crash. They are probably the worst by-product of the merchant system in the game at the moment. They are worth less than 10m, as shown by their stable prices for years, as they have very limited demand, and their only (and i really do mean only) demand at the moment is merchants attempting to get other items. In my studies, we have a term for places in which nobody really belongs and would call their home, called non places, where people only pass through or are there for limited amounts of time, such as an airport. I put the same kind of meaning into the Edible rare market. They are 'non items', nobody actually wants the item, just the artificial money value placed next to it. Because of this, they only pass through peoples possession, and are not kept as a permanent or semi-permanent item like the wearable rares. This leads to them being very risky if you are the one caught in possession of it when the inevitable crash comes.

 

And because of this false value, when those who have what the needed the edible to trade with, have got it and no longer need to buy any more edibles, the merchant market will dry up, leaving some people hundreds of millions out of pocket.

[ilovecuttingyews]

Does anyone know whether or not any of the 'big' merchants even have a lot of eatables? It seems to me that they would do much like what manip cc's do. Buy up a stock, get the price to rise and then get rid of the items before it gets too risky and then let the noobs duke it out trying to suck every last GP out of passing the items around before the inevitable crash. If most of these big hoarders don't have large stocks, then the crash will be much more violent then the one we saw this past summer where it just leveled off in the GE.

 

I also see these eatables as a blessing to the rest of items. With people sinking hundreds of M into them, they don't have that money to spend on things like extra placeholders etc. Keeping the effects of hyperinflation less then what they would otherwise. I would much rather have some noob spend 200M on an egg to sit in the bank to 'gain' value then have him spend that money on iron ore and wait for it to rise.

[Punitive_D]

Does anyone know whether or not any of the 'big' merchants even have a lot of eatables? It seems to me that they would do much like what manip cc's do. Buy up a stock, get the price to rise and then get rid of the items before it gets too risky and then let the noobs duke it out trying to suck every last GP out of passing the items around before the inevitable crash. If most of these big hoarders don't have large stocks, then the crash will be much more violent then the one we saw this past summer where it just leveled off in the GE.

 

I also see these eatables as a blessing to the rest of items. With people sinking hundreds of M into them, they don't have that money to spend on things like extra placeholders etc. Keeping the effects of hyperinflation less then what they would otherwise. I would much rather have some noob spend 200M on an egg to sit in the bank to 'gain' value then have him spend that money on iron ore and wait for it to rise.

 

Edibles are like mints (which, interestingly, also is edible). They're used as currency to trade for above-market (ge) items. If there's nothing trading on the stree for above the ge price, then there is no need for these alternative forms of currency (or for junk trading). As go partyhats, so will go edibles. But you won't see edibles crash completely until you see ALL of the partyhats trading in the GE. I'd say we're a ways away from that.

 

On the other hand, the street price of all partyhats seems to be dropping. The only thing that continues to shoot up in street price is mints. They're well over 10m now.

[Nopnoob]

yeah

[Assume Nothing]

Does anyone know whether or not any of the 'big' merchants even have a lot of eatables? It seems to me that they would do much like what manip cc's do. Buy up a stock, get the price to rise and then get rid of the items before it gets too risky and then let the noobs duke it out trying to suck every last GP out of passing the items around before the inevitable crash. If most of these big hoarders don't have large stocks, then the crash will be much more violent then the one we saw this past summer where it just leveled off in the GE.

 

I also see these eatables as a blessing to the rest of items. With people sinking hundreds of M into them, they don't have that money to spend on things like extra placeholders etc. Keeping the effects of hyperinflation less then what they would otherwise. I would much rather have some noob spend 200M on an egg to sit in the bank to 'gain' value then have him spend that money on iron ore and wait for it to rise.

 

Edibles are like mints (which, interestingly, also is edible). They're used as currency to trade for above-market (ge) items. If there's nothing trading on the stree for above the ge price, then there is no need for these alternative forms of currency (or for junk trading). As go partyhats, so will go edibles. But you won't see edibles crash completely until you see ALL of the partyhats trading in the GE. I'd say we're a ways away from that.

 

On the other hand, the street price of all partyhats seems to be dropping. The only thing that continues to shoot up in street price is mints. They're well over 10m now.

 

You do know that mint cakes are one of the most risky forms of holding street value right? It can crash anytime easily. Yet you can make a fortune if you play your cards right (street wise). It was relatively stable at 4-6m street and when 2lum dumped bunyips, they went right down to 1m street. Then it went volatile. The only current use for them is staking, rwting (the truth is hard to accept, but it still exists), and using them as alternate currency. Once they go up over 60k, they will be unstakeahle. Let's just watch the 'fun' happen.

[Awkward Talking Fish]

To me it looks that's the new 'stable' h'ween price for all them. They're just not budging. I wonder.. if a new boss comes out with new weapons/armour drops people might sell off rares to buy supplies/ the new armour and weapons?

[Star_Fox]

Does anyone know whether or not any of the 'big' merchants even have a lot of eatables? It seems to me that they would do much like what manip cc's do. Buy up a stock, get the price to rise and then get rid of the items before it gets too risky and then let the noobs duke it out trying to suck every last GP out of passing the items around before the inevitable crash. If most of these big hoarders don't have large stocks, then the crash will be much more violent then the one we saw this past summer where it just leveled off in the GE.

 

I also see these eatables as a blessing to the rest of items. With people sinking hundreds of M into them, they don't have that money to spend on things like extra placeholders etc. Keeping the effects of hyperinflation less then what they would otherwise. I would much rather have some noob spend 200M on an egg to sit in the bank to 'gain' value then have him spend that money on iron ore and wait for it to rise.

 

Edibles are like mints (which, interestingly, also is edible). They're used as currency to trade for above-market (ge) items. If there's nothing trading on the stree for above the ge price, then there is no need for these alternative forms of currency (or for junk trading). As go partyhats, so will go edibles. But you won't see edibles crash completely until you see ALL of the partyhats trading in the GE. I'd say we're a ways away from that.

 

On the other hand, the street price of all partyhats seems to be dropping.

 

phats are not dropping at all. it only seems that way because edibles and mints are rising to the point where merchants want to trade in phats for them. People are still willing to pay millions for phats and they're still very hard to come by for pure cash.

[Punitive_D]

phats are not dropping at all. it only seems that way because edibles and mints are rising to the point where merchants want to trade in phats for them. People are still willing to pay millions for phats and they're still very hard to come by for pure cash.

 

Lol. Edibles and mints are the currency used to buy phats. If you can buy phats now for fewer mints and edibles (and you can), then that means phats are dropping. As I said before, you are right that you still can't buy partyhats for pure gp -- gp have for months been amongst the worst crashing junk in the game. Like I said, it will be a while before partyhats can be bought for gp. When that happens, edibles will crash, too. But having said all of that, it's easier to get a partyhat today than it was two months ago. I had a guy offer me a red today for one egg and "about" seventy mint. That was his opening demand. Seemed a lot lower to me than what I would have seen not all that long ago.

[Star_Fox]

phats are not dropping at all. it only seems that way because edibles and mints are rising to the point where merchants want to trade in phats for them. People are still willing to pay millions for phats and they're still very hard to come by for pure cash.

 

Lol. Edibles and mints are the currency used to buy phats. If you can buy phats now for fewer mints and edibles (and you can), then that means phats are dropping. As I said before, you are right that you still can't buy partyhats for pure gp -- gp have for months been amongst the worst crashing junk in the game. Like I said, it will be a while before partyhats can be bought for gp. When that happens, edibles will crash, too. But having said all of that, it's easier to get a partyhat today than it was two months ago. I had a guy offer me a red today for one egg and "about" seventy mint. That was his opening demand. Seemed a lot lower to me than what I would have seen not all that long ago.

 

 

do you even understand the concept of dropping?

 

people are trading off phats for FEWER mints/edibles is because THEY COST MORE. if phats were dropping, more phats would be traded for other expenses like pure cash and there will be more phat sellers in general.

 

to me it looks like there aren't many phat sellers looking for cash or those who just wants to get rid of it so in conclusion, they aren't really dropping at all. the only thing that is happening right now is that mints and edibles are rising like hot cakes.

[Assume Nothing]

phats are not dropping at all. it only seems that way because edibles and mints are rising to the point where merchants want to trade in phats for them. People are still willing to pay millions for phats and they're still very hard to come by for pure cash.

 

Lol. Edibles and mints are the currency used to buy phats. If you can buy phats now for fewer mints and edibles (and you can), then that means phats are dropping. As I said before, you are right that you still can't buy partyhats for pure gp -- gp have for months been amongst the worst crashing junk in the game. Like I said, it will be a while before partyhats can be bought for gp. When that happens, edibles will crash, too. But having said all of that, it's easier to get a partyhat today than it was two months ago. I had a guy offer me a red today for one egg and "about" seventy mint. That was his opening demand. Seemed a lot lower to me than what I would have seen not all that long ago.

 

 

do you even understand the concept of dropping?

 

people are trading off phats for FEWER mints/edibles is because THEY COST MORE. if phats were dropping, more phats would be traded for other expenses like pure cash and there will be more phat sellers in general.

 

to me it looks like there aren't many phat sellers looking for cash or those who just wants to get rid of it so in conclusion, they aren't really dropping at all. the only thing that is happening right now is that mints and edibles are rising like hot cakes.

 

The 'rares' market will be interesting once mint cakes reach around 45k or so. Everyone knows it'll crash at 60k, so many will probably try and dump them off at 50k or so. Because mint cakes are now directly linked with edibles, and edibles linked to phats. We'll probably see a crash in the whole rares market, or at least, a panic sell. What do you think?