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3rd Age/Spirit shields/Phats Discussion


bedman

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I haven't posted on this forum in probably close to 2 years, and I've barely played RuneScape in that time...but one thing I notice everytime I log in, my Santa Hat just keeps rising and rising in price, which is completely opposite of when I stopped playing, and it's worth just kept dropping. Was there something that happened that made these go up again? and how high is it expected to go? (sorry if this is the wrong forum, but everything has changed around here so much!)

The end of free trade and (serious attempt at) RWT saw a LOT of resources and items being dumped into the market. So through 2008 there was a major defaltion. Since then, the market has rebounded normally and has been inflating for quite a while (inflation is normal in a healthy economy). The problem comes with Jagex's implimentation of pure GP rewards into PVP combat. They also reveiled how the system works so there were many people doing what they call '76k-ing' where a person would die holding 76k and the person who killed them got anywhere from 5k-5M. This massive influx of GP into the game without anything leaving caused what players have called 'hyperinflation'. I think over the course of 5 months prices of general things like logs, ores etc jumped up by 50-70%. The items hit the hardest were the discontinued items which people have hoarded since they were introduced, but more people with enough GP to hoard, the more left the 'active' economy to be stashed away in players' banks. There are known to be several players with over 1000 santa hats each, that's how bad hoarding has become.

 

So yes, even with minor crashes when hoarders sell off some of their stocks the general trend is up...up....and AWAY!

 

Your santa isn't worth more, GP is worth less. :P

Yes, this too. Take the price of oil IRL as an example. Even though it's becoming more rare and would keep rising, it wouldn't be as bad as it is. The reson it went up so high (this past summer) was because the value of the US$ dropped. Thus it takes more $ to buy the same amount of gas.

I remember a guy here on the forum a long time ago, who was collecting 500 santa's. At that time, santa's were only 150k each, so if he still has all of them, this guy is insanely rich.

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Well Onyx bolts are alchable for profit, so that might add some gold. Anyway, expect rares to rise anyway.

 

I remember a guy here on the forum a long time ago, who was collecting 500 santa's. At that time, santa's were only 150k each, so if he still has all of them, this guy is insanely rich.

 

Duke Freedom? He got banned for that exact reason if I recall (price manipulation via cornering a market).

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I haven't posted on this forum in probably close to 2 years, and I've barely played RuneScape in that time...but one thing I notice everytime I log in, my Santa Hat just keeps rising and rising in price, which is completely opposite of when I stopped playing, and it's worth just kept dropping. Was there something that happened that made these go up again? and how high is it expected to go? (sorry if this is the wrong forum, but everything has changed around here so much!)

The end of free trade and (serious attempt at) RWT saw a LOT of resources and items being dumped into the market. So through 2008 there was a major defaltion. Since then, the market has rebounded normally and has been inflating for quite a while (inflation is normal in a healthy economy). The problem comes with Jagex's implimentation of pure GP rewards into PVP combat. They also reveiled how the system works so there were many people doing what they call '76k-ing' where a person would die holding 76k and the person who killed them got anywhere from 5k-5M. This massive influx of GP into the game without anything leaving caused what players have called 'hyperinflation'. I think over the course of 5 months prices of general things like logs, ores etc jumped up by 50-70%. The items hit the hardest were the discontinued items which people have hoarded since they were introduced, but more people with enough GP to hoard, the more left the 'active' economy to be stashed away in players' banks. There are known to be several players with over 1000 santa hats each, that's how bad hoarding has become.

 

So yes, even with minor crashes when hoarders sell off some of their stocks the general trend is up...up....and AWAY!

 

Your santa isn't worth more, GP is worth less. :P

Yes, this too. Take the price of oil IRL as an example. Even though it's becoming more rare and would keep rising, it wouldn't be as bad as it is. The reson it went up so high (this past summer) was because the value of the US$ dropped. Thus it takes more $ to buy the same amount of gas.

I remember a guy here on the forum a long time ago, who was collecting 500 santa's. At that time, santa's were only 150k each, so if he still has all of them, this guy is insanely rich.

 

Yes, but what would all that wealth buy him? Not a lot considering what your GP is worth. The buying power of GP is crap. People mostly deal with itmes now. High level trading is more like bartering.

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and the SOL (btw, Sol is the name of our sun, and SOL is also an acronym for Staff of Light :D)

 

That's the point. I was playing off of "Sol" and "S.O.L. (not [cabbage] out of luck, Staff of Light :P) ".

SWAG

 

Mayn U wanna be like me but U can't be me cuz U ain't got ma swagga on.

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Does any one think the rares may take a nose dive after the dupe?

 

Will the masses of unsold bolts be used as bargaining chips?

 

I have no idea i was just wondering because of my mask set and santa :)

I'm willing to bet that more then half of the duped bolts will be banned accounts before they have a chance to sell them. Maybe more.

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Well Onyx bolts are alchable for profit, so that might add some gold. Anyway, expect rares to rise anyway.

 

I remember a guy here on the forum a long time ago, who was collecting 500 santa's. At that time, santa's were only 150k each, so if he still has all of them, this guy is insanely rich.

 

Duke Freedom? He got banned for that exact reason if I recall (price manipulation via cornering a market).

 

Actually he got banned for RWT, however, he did use the money he earned from it for his college payments, so that's good. He was a nice person telling from the few posts of his I've seen.

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Three months banishment to 9gag is something i would never wish upon anybody, not even my worst enemy.

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Actually he got banned for RWT, however, he did use the money he earned from it for his college payments, so that's good. He was a nice person telling from the few posts of his I've seen.

 

Yeah, I used to post on his forums way back in the day and spoke to him a couple of times. He was a good guy.

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Starting Playing RS: ages ago.

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Yep, I really miss his market analysis posts. =\

Someone should track him down and get him reaquainted with todays markets...see how he likes them now!

 

Yeah that would be interesting. He did go on to write a few articles in 07. Here are some links if anyone is interested.

 

http://www.runehead.com/editorials/RuneScape%27s+Economy+and+its+Material+Markets-53

 

 

http://www.runehead.com/editorials/The+era+of+rares+-+has+it+come+to+an+end%3F-118

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Well Onyx bolts are alchable for profit, so that might add some gold. Anyway, expect rares to rise anyway.

 

I remember a guy here on the forum a long time ago, who was collecting 500 santa's. At that time, santa's were only 150k each, so if he still has all of them, this guy is insanely rich.

 

Duke Freedom? He got banned for that exact reason if I recall (price manipulation via cornering a market).

 

Actually he got banned for RWT, however, he did use the money he earned from it for his college payments, so that's good. He was a nice person telling from the few posts of his I've seen.

NO, not duke freedom. But yeah, he was a nice guy.

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Crowns haven't been traded via the GE today. The GE updated about 30 minutes ago; every piece of royal clothing (minus the crown) has risen significantly. Some of the pieces rose about 15k, so there were a good amount traded over the Grand Exchange.

 

It looks like the merchants will try to hold onto the Crown (at least temporarily) as it's basically a cheap Party hat and thus has a higher demand than the other Royal items.

 

Currently, I'm trying to buy the Royal clothing over the Grand Exchange (put offer in 20 minutes after update, which is good, even though I wanted to put it in >1 minute after update), and I'm trying to get a Pirate's Hook over the GE as well. Hopefully, if I get the hook, I can use it as a bargaining chip for a Crown (hopefully). If not, then I at least have an item with an artificial value over 50 million, which will help me buy other hard-to-get items.

 

Questions:

 

1) When should the Royal Crown crash to the point where it's buyable over the GE?

2) Are gnome goggles a good investment?

3) When should the other Royal items (not crown) crash?

 

Thanks.

SWAG

 

Mayn U wanna be like me but U can't be me cuz U ain't got ma swagga on.

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The Royal items most likely won't crash, but their GE value will slow down until it evens out to a point where the demand meets the supply. They're like any other rare useless item, they will have a slightly higher Street Value than their GE value. Don't waste a hook on an item that is so much easier to bring into the game. Think about it, hooks take hours of a [cabbage]ty minigame to get, whereas crowns come into the game by players finding a random imp.

 

There are most likely less hooks in this game than Santa Hats/Masks, and maybe even easters. How many times have you seen a hook, compared to how many times you've seen a Santa. How many people actually play that minigame, then decide to sacrifice XP for a quick buck?

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Good point.

 

As far as the street value versus GE value ratio, how should they compare in the future for Royal items? Will it be like an animal mask where they cost about 10 million or so for the higher-end ones? Should the Royal items have a "reasonable" price in the future? Could it even be like the Top Hat where it was once worth millions for a while, then it gradually dropped down to about 200-300k?

 

Anyway, I'll check back on this thread in the afternoon tomorrow. Cheers. =)

SWAG

 

Mayn U wanna be like me but U can't be me cuz U ain't got ma swagga on.

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You guys might find this helpful. Street Price Calculator

 

I made a little street price calculator. All you have to do is find out what the street price of an easter rgg is, and you'll get the rest of rares. I see people frequently asking, and because street price varies so much depending on the junk circulating in the market, it could at least give you an idea of the current street prices on items.

 

I may add things like hooks and wergali unf soon, but their stability in relation to easters is still questionable.

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You guys might find this helpful. Street Price Calculator

 

I made a little street price calculator. All you have to do is find out what the street price of an easter rgg is, and you'll get the rest of rares. I see people frequently asking, and because street price varies so much depending on the junk circulating in the market, it could at least give you an idea of the current street prices on items.

 

I may add things like hooks and wergali unf soon, but their stability in relation to easters is still questionable.

 

Lovely idea, bad execution. You always have to take into account a few other items, such as manipulation crap people will accept, whether for junk or as a rising. Easters are semi stable, but when they reach a higher price, merchants lose confidence. Plus it's not even that rarely traded on the GE, every few days it rises in value. That's probably more traded than Vesta's longsword. Heh

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Lovely idea, bad execution. You always have to take into account a few other items, such as manipulation crap people will accept, whether for junk or as a rising. Easters are semi stable, but when they reach a higher price, merchants lose confidence. Plus it's not even that rarely traded on the GE, every few days it rises in value. That's probably more traded than Vesta's longsword. Heh

 

Partyhats and other items are stable in relation to easters. Easter may rise/fall, but as they do, the others items tied to them do the same. A party isn't worth 2 easters one week and then three the next, and then 2 again, and etc. Within the street market itself things are a lot more stable. ;)

 

And trust me, I know exactly how to factor in street/GE when calculating the street price of other items. 99% of RuneScape doesn't (even though it's very simple), and that's why I made this. And merchants won't lose confidence in easters anytime soon, especially with masks/santas holding buyouts.

 

But if anyone has any suggestions on how to improve this, please do let me know.

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Concering santas,

how long is this rising going to last and could someone predict the price they are likely to reach ? Is it possible they will reach 80m without crashing?

Also is someone buying them out, or is it just increseded demand, or is it something I missed totaly ?

Also, are h'ween mask buyable in g.e. without snipping?

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Having not looked at the lower rares market for a few months, i'm amazed at the prices of santas and masks. I never thought i would see reds go higher than the peak of 70m a few years back, which was only followed by a massive crash. And santas are also strangely priced. They had been fairly stable in the 15-30m price range for countless years, and i cannot see the current price being any more than a pre-curser to a crash. all items seem to have them naturally without manipulators sometimes.

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I would say natural hype + inflation. A natural price rise of a M which they cycle through every so often may have been picked up by more players than usual leading it to rise for an extra day or two. Thios in turn is seen by more players which keeps the price rising up until a stage we are at now where people are starting to sell them for-seeing a crash, which actually leads to the crash. I would guess this pulled masks up with it, as all 4 seems to correlate in prices.

 

OR a clan is manipulating them.

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I would say natural hype + inflation. A natural price rise of a M which they cycle through every so often may have been picked up by more players than usual leading it to rise for an extra day or two. Thios in turn is seen by more players which keeps the price rising up until a stage we are at now where people are starting to sell them for-seeing a crash, which actually leads to the crash. I would guess this pulled masks up with it, as all 4 seems to correlate in prices.

 

OR a clan is manipulating them.

Inflation has ended on the "normal items" and people realised there was still a lot of excess cash, so they started spending it on rares. With phats and edibles bought out, santas and masks were the logical next step. I dont see santas ever going under 40m again, unless a major money sink is introduced.

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Does anybody want to fathom a guess as to the effect on the rares market the double exp weekend will have? I personally think a fair amount of people will sell off a rare or two to either invest in raws which will rise in the next two weeks, or to buy them for themselves at least.

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Does anybody want to fathom a guess as to the effect on the rares market the double exp weekend will have? I personally think a fair amount of people will sell off a rare or two to either invest in raws which will rise in the next two weeks, or to buy them for themselves at least.

My thoughts are that people with rares will trade them for raw materials directly because a lot of things are bought out already and I can't really see them crashing much because (nearly) ALL members will do some sort of skilling that weekend so they need to buy the raw materials. But what I see coming is when the lower rares crash, more will be in the hands of newbie merchers who got them from trades. More newbs = less hoarders = more people who panic sell in the crash. So when the crash somes more people will panic sell and the fall will be more then it 'would have been'. Granted, there is too much GP in the game for them to fall past....say...40M, but they'll take a hit.

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Long run, would it be better to keep a green or blue mask? I would rather not be bogged down in both(and I just plopped my santas in the GE do not trust them). Up until the last update greens seemed to be rising faster than blue...

 

Also, I swapped a sol that I got off the ge for a green h+fury+2m or so random seemingly stable stuff...was that good or bad?

Barrows: 9~2 V Brass,V Flail,2 Dh Plate,V Helm,V Skirt,T Legs,Malevolent Shield DKing: 48~6 W Ring,13 A Ring,8 M Staff,9 S Ring,7 B Ring,3 Seercull
Dragon Drops: 500+~50+ Med,26 Axe,3 Chain,10+ Legs,10+ Spear,2 D2h,10+ L Half,49 Boots,2 DDs,10+ Lump,9 Claws,50+ Dagger,14 Visage,50+ Mace,4 Scimitar,7 Hasta,Baxe,50+ Long,30+ Royal,2 Kite,4 Ward,2 Plate,Staff,Hammer,Limbs, Mattock,Halberd
GWD: 156~4 S Staff,50+ Shard,9 B Tass,13 B Plate,5 B Boots,6 A Plate,11 S Sword,8 A Hilt,4 A Skirt,9 A Helm,S Hilt,3 B Hilt,B Glove,2 A Buckler,Z Ward,Z Garb,2 Z Boots,B Shield,B Helm

Corp: 3~Elysian,2 Sp Sh Nex: 6~Torva Legs,Cere,P cowl,Z bow,2 T boots + GWD2: 9~2 Glaive,Wand,2 Crest,Blade,2 Essence,Core Araxyte: 5~Web,3 Pheromone,Fang + Raids: 4~3 Codex,P Boots  + Trails: 2~Bob Shirt,Fortunate

Etc: 64~3 Sceptre,B Mask,16 Whip,2 Focus Sight,5 D Bow,7 SOL,Ragefire,2 Steadfast,Arma Staff,6 Rider Armor,5 Vine,2 Razorback,2 A Wand,Abby Orb,3 Blood Shard,6 Hydrix,Gland,Asc Xbow
[spoiler=Capes]Quest Cape Aquired 12-7-07 ~ Level 93 + + + Completionist Cape Aquired 5-22-15 ~ Level 138
Hitpoints Cape Aquired 9-21-09 ~ Level 131 + Magic Cape Aquired 9-24-09 Attack Cape Aquired 3-5-10 ~ Level 135 Summoning Cape Aquired 3-12-10

Strength Cape Aquired 6-1-11 ~ Level 137 Fire Cape Aquired 6-23-11 Defence Cape Aquired 7-5-11 + Ranged Cape Aquired 8-1-11 Kiln Cape Aquired 2-26-12 ~ Level 138
Dungeoneering Cape Aquired 4-22-12 + Slayer Cape Aquired 6-25-14 ~ Level 200 + Herblore Cape Acquired 12-9-14 ~ Level 138 Prayer Cape Acquired 12-20-14
Agility Cape Acquired 1-4-15 + Hunter Cape Acquired 1-30-15 Construction Cape Acquired 1-31-15 Crafting Cape Acquired 2-22-15 Thieving Cape Acquired 3-18-15
Runecrafting Cape Acquired 4-14-15 Mining Cape Acquired 4-19-15 Fishing Cape Acquired 4-25-15 Firemaking Cape Acquired 4-26-15 Woodcutting Cape Acquired 4-26-15
Cooking Cape Acquired 4-26-15Smithing Cape Acquired 4-28-15 Farming Cape Acquired 4-29-15 Divination Cape Acquired 5-3-15 Dungeoneering Mastery 5-4-15
Fletching Cape Acquired 5-4-15 Max Cape Acquired 5-4-15 + Invention Cape Acquired 11-9-16 Invention Mastery 5-16-19 + Archaeology Cape Acquired 10-30-20

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