25-September-2013 - Runescape Bonds

[kamil1210]

It's probably just something a random dev mod made in photoshop for the fun of it ;) :twisted:

And they put this in video because it looks cool and futuristic

[Bxpprod]

Should have just gone with "Jagex Official GP Store" (stay tuned, 6-12 months away).

[ACK]

Now i understand why Jagex banned thier players for Real-world-trading so Jagex can sell items for more money, MORE MONEY, PAY ALL YOUR MONEY,

they are working on stuff to take our money more than working on updating the game, and i don't see this is gonna stop gold farmers. wake-up Jagex you're destroying the game, where is your promises of updating the game.

 

that might work when you got more players, work on attracting people into this game not taking your loyal players money.

 

 

NEXT JAGEX UPDATE:

Pay us for XP (SALE: get your 99 level for half price)

 

soon we don't have to play the game at all, buy XP to MAX, buy any item from the game and buy your in-game girlfriend/boyfriend.. probably with babies :D

[Ammako]

Hey, people smarter than me: is there any actual benefit to a recurring membership?

 

As long as bonds stay at some reasonable price (random number: 8M) it's probably worth it to just buy a bond every two weeks instead of a subscription since I can make many multiples of 8M in that time. I'm seriously considering it.

Duuuuuuuuuuuude

That's genius!

 

If bonds do settle at 8M each, then all you would have to do is fill up two inventories of Frost dragon bones @ Frosts each day (meaning you spend like 15 minutes of your time every day) and you have your entire membership paid for.

[kamil1210]

Bought bond for 7,7m

[ilovecuttingyews]

I just auto bought one for 7.4M.

[Poppet]

And that's 5 more Solomon Outfits + Sir Owen Pack to my customization menu. Totally going to buy more of them if the bonds continue going down.

 

Not like I can't make 6m+ per hour or have a huge cashpile. I could spend my day and get a year's worth of membership if I wanted it. Even at these rates I can buy bonds better than actually having a job and buying all the stuff myself.

 

It's even getting cheaper too.

[Celery n Corn]

The bond system as it is right now is destined to fail. It offers players the ability to buy gold (and membership / other Jagex pay-to-win stuff), but it offers no way for players to SELL gold. This means it will be impossible for bonds to find a long-term equilibrium price. They do not satisfy the solution which is provided by gold trading.

 

The reason websites are able to sell gold to players is because they also buy gold from players. 99% of the RS Gold websites out there do NOT make their own gold. There is a misconception that these websites are gold farms; they are NOT. Gold farming and gold selling are completely separate businesses. It would be like saying Wal-Mart manufactures all of their own products. These websites buy from players at a lower rate and sell at a higher rate.

 

Jagex states that 45-50% of the community currently partakes in RWT. Who knows how legitimate this number is, and how it was calculated, but the implied statement is that they wish to provide service to this 45-50% of the population. The fact is, the target customer-base for Jagex is the OTHER 50%, the ones who DO NOT currently buy gold. The portion of the community that already partakes on third party websites, etc. is very unlikely to switch over to buying / selling from Jagex unless the prices are competitive.

 

Currently, the price for 1 bond is $5 USD. Their value on the Grand Exchange will be determined by supply/demand. They have no utility in-game beyond their membership value. They cannot be redeemed for real world cash (within game rules). Membership costs $8 per month on the site, and a bond provides 14 days of membership. If we count a month as 30 days on average, the value of a bond is (14 / 30 * $8) = $3.73. We see that bonds are already overpriced.

 

So now, we see that a bond carries $3.73 in value in-game. If we consider current gold prices to be about $0.40/M, then we can assume a player will expect the GE price to be approximately 9.3M for a bond. The bond was originally purchased for $5, so this means the person who originally bought the bond has effectively paid ~$0.54/m or 34% extra just by purchasing a bond.

 

Now, let's consider the assumption we made in this calculation:

 

Membership $ and Real Life $ are equivalent

 

REALITY: People certainly value real $ more than store credit on Runescape.com. This means that the GE price should actually be lower than 9.33M in the long run. Furthermore, the marginal value of a membership to one player falls as quantity increases. A player may want 2-3 Bonds for membership, but they likely don't need 10-20 Bonds for membership. With RL $, the first dollar is as useful as the last dollar.

 

Now, back to the point that Jagex has not offered a way for players to cash out into RL $. This means there is still a massive hole in the economy. These players who wish to sell gold will have no choice but to undercut Jagex's prices on the Black Market. Jagex can cry all they want, but they even admitted this economy exists and is not going away. So they've made a major mistake by neglecting this portion of that market. By not allowing players to cash out Bonds / GP for RL $, they create a market outside the game.

 

We will see gold prices drop quite quickly once these updates are implemented. The Black Market will find an equilibrium at a much lower rate for gold than the Bond market. The only players that will continue to buy gold with Bonds are the new customers who were afraid of transacting off-site. This update will only increase the amount of people RWT'ing, and will not stop any off-site activity. It's a complete money-grab in every sense of the term. It offers nothing to combat gold-farming, gold selling or RWT in general.

Great read, I just had a question regarding Jagex's statement of knowing who is buying gold and actually being able to see it via the trades. IF Jagex can actually do this and IF jagex starts banning who they believe are RWT won't players just say F it i'll pay a little more for a bond and not get banned. Won't the extra income from these bonds circumvent any money lost ffrom bannings?

[Hoet]

Great read, I just had a question regarding Jagex's statement of knowing who is buying gold and actually being able to see it via the trades. IF Jagex can actually do this and IF jagex starts banning who they believe are RWT won't players just say F it i'll pay a little more for a bond and not get banned. Won't the extra income from these bonds circumvent any money lost ffrom bannings?

Although Jagex claims to know exactly who is buying/selling gold, this is not the case. Yes, they do detect it sometimes, and ban the dealers. They expend a ton of resources doing this, it's a very manual process. They have already done as much as they can in terms of banning dealers, there isn't some button they can press to increase the intensity.

 

As for them banning buyers, once again, I highly doubt this will happen. As Jagex mentioned, a huge amount of their userbase partakes in RWT. They now even sell gold themselves through Bonds. There is no way they can afford to ban casual players who buy gold on websites. It's a horrible move business-wise. The game is losing enough of a userbase as it is without banning its longstanding customers.

 

I believe Jagex is realizing that there is no way to reverse the trend of a decreasing population in Runescape. The game is not run by the original creators, management has been completely rehauled since RS1 and even RS2 launch. No one on the board has anything vested in the game beyond money. This isn't their baby that they've raised. It's an asset they accumulated. They've decided to extract as much revenue as possible from the current audience. This is an update motivated by short-term gains and nothing more. The game is shrinking and they may as well grab as much money as possible on the way out.

[Ulysses]

As someone else has mentioned earlier, this could be good for players who are wealthy in game, and have no accessible means in reality to get themselves membership, spins and runecoins at various points in time...empowering those kids i guess. So I suppose this gives in game gp a monetary value in the real world, based on how much membership costs, runefest ticket pricing, and etc., in relation to the face value of the bond (by GE or o/w). While there may not be a direct way to convert gp into money, the bond would have helped facilitate it because it is something that could be redeemed for in game benefits. So for those gold buyers, rather than buying them off as gp, they buy them as bonds. The risks associated with those unofficial websites are still present however. All this update does, is to discourage it; but for those keen to find a way to convert gp into money, they would do as mentioned above, undercut the Jagex price. Problem will still persist and it's sad to say that the bonds may actually help it.

 

Although it is a bit different, the ramification of the update could shed some light on what could happen when the AH and RMAH get shut down in D3.

[chenw]

 

Great read, I just had a question regarding Jagex's statement of knowing who is buying gold and actually being able to see it via the trades. IF Jagex can actually do this and IF jagex starts banning who they believe are RWT won't players just say F it i'll pay a little more for a bond and not get banned. Won't the extra income from these bonds circumvent any money lost ffrom bannings?

Although Jagex claims to know exactly who is buying/selling gold, this is not the case. Yes, they do detect it sometimes, and ban the dealers. They expend a ton of resources doing this, it's a very manual process. They have already done as much as they can in terms of banning dealers, there isn't some button they can press to increase the intensity.

 

As for them banning buyers, once again, I highly doubt this will happen. As Jagex mentioned, a huge amount of their userbase partakes in RWT. They now even sell gold themselves through Bonds. There is no way they can afford to ban casual players who buy gold on websites. It's a horrible move business-wise. The game is losing enough of a userbase as it is without banning its longstanding customers.

 

I believe Jagex is realizing that there is no way to reverse the trend of a decreasing population in Runescape. The game is not run by the original creators, management has been completely rehauled since RS1 and even RS2 launch. No one on the board has anything vested in the game beyond money. This isn't their baby that they've raised. It's an asset they accumulated. They've decided to extract as much revenue as possible from the current audience. This is an update motivated by short-term gains and nothing more. The game is shrinking and they may as well grab as much money as possible on the way out.

 

 

But here is the thing: the stuff they are doing now is absolutely nothing new to the MMORPG worlds, some games (even ones going back a decade) is/was using this kind of system and have survived on that since its own beginning (Knight Online, Runes of Magic to name a few).

 

Also, there is also this issue of declining MMORPG players in general, what if you were CEO and you saw that nothing you could do, no matter how much in player's favor, could revive the number of RS players simply because the industry is declining? Keep doing it until the game physically dies, and possibly go bankrupt, or, as you say, make as much money as possible on the way out?

[Alg]

But here is the thing: the stuff they are doing now is absolutely nothing new to the MMORPG worlds, some games (even ones going back a decade) is/was using this kind of system and have survived on that since its own beginning (Knight Online, Runes of Magic to name a few).

YOU HAVE NO IDEA HOW LONG I'VE BEEN WAITING FOR SOMEONE ELSE TO SAY THIS THANK YOU SO MUCH I LOVE YOU MARRY ME*cough*

[Ginger_Warrior]

Didn't EVE Online as well?

 

Not really the marriage type, before anyone (alg) gets ideas.

[Hoet]

 

 

Great read, I just had a question regarding Jagex's statement of knowing who is buying gold and actually being able to see it via the trades. IF Jagex can actually do this and IF jagex starts banning who they believe are RWT won't players just say F it i'll pay a little more for a bond and not get banned. Won't the extra income from these bonds circumvent any money lost ffrom bannings?

Although Jagex claims to know exactly who is buying/selling gold, this is not the case. Yes, they do detect it sometimes, and ban the dealers. They expend a ton of resources doing this, it's a very manual process. They have already done as much as they can in terms of banning dealers, there isn't some button they can press to increase the intensity.

 

As for them banning buyers, once again, I highly doubt this will happen. As Jagex mentioned, a huge amount of their userbase partakes in RWT. They now even sell gold themselves through Bonds. There is no way they can afford to ban casual players who buy gold on websites. It's a horrible move business-wise. The game is losing enough of a userbase as it is without banning its longstanding customers.

 

I believe Jagex is realizing that there is no way to reverse the trend of a decreasing population in Runescape. The game is not run by the original creators, management has been completely rehauled since RS1 and even RS2 launch. No one on the board has anything vested in the game beyond money. This isn't their baby that they've raised. It's an asset they accumulated. They've decided to extract as much revenue as possible from the current audience. This is an update motivated by short-term gains and nothing more. The game is shrinking and they may as well grab as much money as possible on the way out.

 

But here is the thing: the stuff they are doing now is absolutely nothing new to the MMORPG worlds, some games (even ones going back a decade) is/was using this kind of system and have survived on that since its own beginning (Knight Online, Runes of Magic to name a few).

 

Also, there is also this issue of declining MMORPG players in general, what if you were CEO and you saw that nothing you could do, no matter how much in player's favor, could revive the number of RS players simply because the industry is declining? Keep doing it until the game physically dies, and possibly go bankrupt, or, as you say, make as much money as possible on the way out?

 

I suppose there are different ways to define success for this update. I agree that it will increase revenue for Jagex. Some may define that as a success. However, the video on Runescape.com's header describes this update as a dagger to off-site RWT. They claim that by Jagex selling Bonds, and allowing players to trade bonds, that it will somehow unhinge the secondary markets.

 

If Jagex was just honest to the community about it, then I'd be fine with it. They created the game, they can do whatever they want really. As you said, they wouldn't be the first company to do something like this. They're a company with decreasing revenue and need to find a way to remain successful.

 

We all got the impression that Jagex was willing to sacrifice the short terms gains available from selling in-game wealth to benefit the game over the long-term. This is the obvious signal that they are no longer thinking long-term, and are instead focusing purely on short term profit.

 

Runescape is now a Pay-To-Win game.

[chenw]

Not as much P2W as other games which also offer in game boosts with the currency you buy with real money. Bonds right now do surprising little to contribute to the 'winning' part since all the services you can avail with the bonds already exists.

 

 

Unless you count Membership as P2W (which, if one really were to look into it, it's probably correct), then Jagex has been doing that for a LOT longer than SGS/SoF have.

 

But we will see if it really is the case, by how bad the inflation will be several months after.

[Blyaunte]

For the sake of asking, weren't "bonds" used in other gaming systems, specifically WoW and MapleStory, and didn't they pretty much FUBAR the economies of both games?

 

I am not sure of my facts on this, but this is my recollection on this issue ... :unsure:

[Binary Mage]

I don't believe WoW has had any sort of system of membership itemization like that--not so sure on MapleStory but I haven't heard of the like.

 

Only well-known game that has had it implemented it right now is EVE Online I believe, which has had a very nicely stabilized economy despite the in-game and corporation-related factors that seem to want to make it otherwise.

 

Overall this is pretty exciting. I think it's a step in the right direction--even if I didn't really notice much gold farmer impact myself previously, I still know it exists.

 

 

Guess I'm gonna have to get used to this, since WildStar is going to be using this kind of subscripion system from day one as well. :P

 

 

 

EDIT: Also means that spins/rcoins are technically able to be obtained entirely with in-game money now. Nice.

[Tres]

its good for f2p ppl who had no intention to pay member before...also for wealthy player that want buy runecoins without paying rl cash

i can myself keep maintaining continuous membership just by lending phat 2mil for 24h every few days and possibly buy bank boosters and stuff from solomon

dunno if 95+ divination still makes good cash but i could probably go convert energies for few hours to get some extra gold too to buy more bonds(runecoins) later.

[sees_all1]

I wonder if they're going to pretend that they never had the stance that they didn't want real life circumstances influencing in game circumstances.

[chenw]

Change in management, change in strategy, Jagex in the Gower days is not the Jagex we see today, therefore I see no sense in comparing the two companies.

[Kimberly]

For the sake of asking, weren't "bonds" used in other gaming systems, specifically WoW and MapleStory, and didn't they pretty much FUBAR the economies of both games?

 

I am not sure of my facts on this, but this is my recollection on this issue ... :unsure:

Maplestory directly sold gold at prices that were never matched by their goldselling counterparts and never could stop the goldsellers nor punish the buyers effectively. My friends bought gold from sellers rather than MS frequently. It was more viable than grinding for hours in a place specifically good for moneymaking at the sacrifice of EXP shortly before we all quit.

 

As for WoW, I don't know if they've ever implemented a bond-like system. Maybe someone else can clarify.

[sees_all1]

Change in management, change in strategy, Jagex in the Gower days is not the Jagex we see today, therefore I see no sense in comparing the two companies.

 

Yeah, but it's a little dishonest to not even acknowledge your roots.

 

I think bonds were aptly named... you're betting on the future of runescape when you buy them. Conceivably this could create a bubble where players hoard enough of these bonds, and then something triggers everyone to redeem them all at once. JaGEx goes a period of time without receiving any income, and since their cash flow is starved they have to turn off the lights.

[ilovecuttingyews]

 

Yeah, but it's a little dishonest to not even acknowledge your roots.

These are venture capitalists. Dishonest is what they do.

[Blyaunte]

 

For the sake of asking, weren't "bonds" used in other gaming systems, specifically WoW and MapleStory, and didn't they pretty much FUBAR the economies of both games?

 

I am not sure of my facts on this, but this is my recollection on this issue ... :unsure:

Maplestory directly sold gold at prices that were never matched by their goldselling counterparts and never could stop the goldsellers nor punish the buyers effectively. My friends bought gold from sellers rather than MS frequently. It was more viable than grinding for hours in a place specifically good for moneymaking at the sacrifice of EXP shortly before we all quit.

 

As for WoW, I don't know if they've ever implemented a bond-like system. Maybe someone else can clarify.

 

 

But here's the issue - won't R/S Bonds now allow someone to buy R/S gear or skills, using IRL money, and do so "legitimately"?

 

If so, what will this do the game's economy? Will it drive prices up? Down? Existentially sideways? :unsure:

[chenw]

 

 

Yeah, but it's a little dishonest to not even acknowledge your roots.

These are venture capitalists. Dishonest is what they do.

 

 

 

There is also a very important question of, even if they were Honest with us, how many of us will actually believe them?