Jadinko Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I've read this several weeks ago and thouht it was utter tosh. In a self conducted servery of 100000 people who had a birthday on the 1st of jan I found that they all shared the same birthday. Therefore EVERYONE shares the same birthday. I also conducted a survey in my class on those who liked monday mornings. No one liked monday morning there for 100% of the population dislikes monday mornings. I conducted a servey with myself on favourite foods and found that lasagne was the top choice. It might be a safe bet to say it's everyone favourite choice. This is not at all how statistics works... Your assumptions about the population from your sample have a certain confidence, you neglect to mention them or even understand them. This is why the birthday problem makes no sense to you. Statistics can be so easy manipulated that it's best to take them with a pinch of salt. I still stand there there is 8 combinations of each stage and there is 4 stages. 8^4 does = 4096. But I guess there is a block which stop you having two things in one effigy which will half it. I only have a GCSE understanding of math and that is only C grade. Statistics can not be manipulated. It is an exact science. The meaning behind the statistical outcome can be misrepresented and/or misunderstood. Long story short effigies do not stack. The easiest way to understand this is that the four pairs of skills that any given effigy goes through is not determined upon the drop. Each time a player opens a stage the game rolls a die for the next stage's pair. /argument lets move on. Source? Miseryism | Completionist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xensure Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 [spoiler=Big Quote]I've read this several weeks ago and thouht it was utter tosh. In a self conducted servery of 100000 people who had a birthday on the 1st of jan I found that they all shared the same birthday. Therefore EVERYONE shares the same birthday. I also conducted a survey in my class on those who liked monday mornings. No one liked monday morning there for 100% of the population dislikes monday mornings. I conducted a servey with myself on favourite foods and found that lasagne was the top choice. It might be a safe bet to say it's everyone favourite choice. This is not at all how statistics works... Your assumptions about the population from your sample have a certain confidence, you neglect to mention them or even understand them. This is why the birthday problem makes no sense to you. Statistics can be so easy manipulated that it's best to take them with a pinch of salt. I still stand there there is 8 combinations of each stage and there is 4 stages. 8^4 does = 4096. But I guess there is a block which stop you having two things in one effigy which will half it. I only have a GCSE understanding of math and that is only C grade. Statistics can not be manipulated. It is an exact science. The meaning behind the statistical outcome can be misrepresented and/or misunderstood. Long story short effigies do not stack. The easiest way to understand this is that the four pairs of skills that any given effigy goes through is not determined upon the drop. Each time a player opens a stage the game rolls a die for the next stage's pair. /argument lets move on. Source? Process of deduction. If there were in fact 4096 different effigies jagex would have to make up a different item code for all of them and then they would have to add each of them to the drop table that contain effigies. they would also have to assign the non-stackable property to all of them. This process of coding make no sense what so ever. It makes much more sense to just design effigies the way I suggested and then you only need 1 spot on the drop table making things much more manageable. I suppose this is a bit of conjecture and the opposite of an argumentum ad hominem (confirmation bias?), assuming that Jagex makes intelligent programming decisions, but I would bet money on that this is the way the effigies are designed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgehog Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Paul Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 :shock:That's insane.. you've just proved that, despite the less than 1/trillionth chance that it could be true, EFFIGIES DO INDEED STACK. I vote that the Hedgehogian Impossibility be named in honor of you. It will be used to show that despite what statistics tell us, you can never discount tiny probabilities. I know this is a bold question, but could you please investigate one of the effigies and tell us the combination so that we will know for future reference? It's a shame that it's so rare, otherwise there could be some serious record setting. Working on max and completionist capes. 2435/2475 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fallstar Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Not bad for a paint job. Asmodean <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lethe_Keres Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 :shock:That's insane.. you've just proved that, despite the less than 1/trillionth chance that it could be true, EFFIGIES DO INDEED STACK. I vote that the Hedgehogian Impossibility be named in honor of you. It will be used to show that despite what statistics tell us, you can never discount tiny probabilities. I know this is a bold question, but could you please investigate one of the effigies and tell us the combination so that we will know for future reference? It's a shame that it's so rare, otherwise there could be some serious record setting. You seriously just got trolled. Lol. Effigies do not stack even if they are of the same combination. If they did you could bank loads more then what Mithril banked or what Richard currently has banked. Mithril had 512 and at least 30% of them had to be of the same stages and they did not stack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgehog Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Nah, Paul knew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
levine1996 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Very funny, hedgehog :wink: Follow my progress toward maxing in f2p here: http://forum.tip.it/topic/296111-levine1996-maxing-out-100-f2p/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exp_Freak Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 this vid was re uploaded, so ill repost since it was removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capo_di_Capi Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 this vid was re uploaded, so ill repost since it was removed. That's an impressive goal, doubt if he will accomplish it though. If he does, I'm pretty sure he got the most XP in a year. Suomi didn't get 2.25B or more in a 12-month period, did he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luwts Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 this vid was re uploaded, so ill repost since it was removed. That's an impressive goal, doubt if he will accomplish it though. If he does, I'm pretty sure he got the most XP in a year. Suomi didn't get 2.25B or more in a 12-month period, did he? Suomi got a little under 2b in a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemeos2 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I don't see how people and himself say that Dragonseance is efficiet now I see that Fletching method. My youtube channel with efficient skilling guides and achievements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vann Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Would it be smart to corp for crims/blues for 96 summoning so I can use yak to slay. Or would wyverns/wfs be a better option? I figure with corp I have a chance (albeit small) of a sigil which would be nice since I lost all my dicing profits from being hacked recently. Peace,Vann Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemeos2 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I have no idea about gp/hr from Corp but Glacors wouldn't be a bad option. Good effigys, cash/hr and charms. My youtube channel with efficient skilling guides and achievements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lethe_Keres Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I don't see how people and himself say that Dragonseance is efficiet now I see that Fletching method. Says the person getting 200m skills in easy skills and not even maxed overall total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordyy Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I don't see how people and himself say that Dragonseance is efficiet now I see that Fletching method. Says the person getting 200m skills in easy skills and not even maxed overall total.In terms of hours Cooking doesn't recquire all 99s in order to get it to 200M. So it's justified, you can also get a lot of skills in many skills before effigies will affect hours due to blocking in many skills and not affect the whole 200Ms drastically. I dont know the exact number but it's around 150M exp for the slower effigy options and 200M for the faster one. It's a bit annoying hearing people whine about others gamestyles. play how you want. It might be more efficient to do dung first though, but leave your points for chaotics and other rewards, and because dung gives exp in almost all skills. He's only lost an hour so it;s no big deal. 380th to 200,000,000 Cook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tama Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I don't see how people and himself say that Dragonseance is efficiet now I see that Fletching method. Please just shut the [bleep] up with all your efficiency talk. My Youtube #37 to achieve the trimmed Completionist cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgehog Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Please respect others' opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anticipate Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I don't see how people and himself say that Dragonseance is efficiet now I see that Fletching method.I agree. He got master rc robes just to look cool or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quyneax Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I don't see how people and himself say that Dragonseance is efficiet now I see that Fletching method.I agree. He got master rc robes just to look cool or something.The most efficient way to get 200m in all skills and master runecrafter robes is playing GOP before 200m rc. A goal can never be inefficient. That is final. Supporter of Zaros | Quest Cape owner since 22 may 2010 | No skills below 99 | Total level 2595 | Completionist Cape owner since 17th June 2013 | Suggestions 99 summoning (18th June 2011, previously untrimmed) | 99 farming (14th July 2011) | 99 prayer (8th September 2011) | 99 constitution (10th September 2011) | 99 dungeoneering (15th November 2011) 99 ranged (28th November 2011) | 99 attack, 99 defence, 99 strength (11th December 2011) | 99 slayer (18th December 2011) | 99 magic (22nd December 2011) | 99 construction (16th March 2012) 99 herblore (22nd March 2012) | 99 firemaking (26th March 2012) | 99 cooking (2nd July 2012) | 99 runecrafting (12th March 2012) | 99 crafting (26th August 2012) | 99 agility (19th November 2012) 99 woodcutting (22nd November 2012) | 99 fletching (31st December 2012) | 99 thieving (3rd January 2013) | 99 hunter (11th January 2013) | 99 mining (21st January 2013) | 99 fishing (21st January 2013) 99 smithing (21st January 2013) | 120 dungeoneering (17th June 2013) | 99 divination (24th November 2013) Tormented demon drops: twenty effigies, nine pairs of claws, two dragon armour slices and one elite clue | Dagannoth king drops: two dragon hatchets, two elite clues, one archer ring and one warrior ring Glacor drops: four pairs of ragefire boots, one pair of steadfast boots, six effigies, two hundred lots of Armadyl shards, three elite clues | Nex split: Torva boots | Kalphite King split: off-hand drygore mace 30/30 Shattered Heart statues completed | 16/16 Court Cases completed | 25/25 Choc Chimp Ices delivered | 500/500 Vyrewatch burned | 584/584 tasks completed | 4000/4000 chompies hunted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asfcjfdyitfhglh Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 By that time, Suomi will be 200M all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemeos2 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I don't see how people and himself say that Dragonseance is efficiet now I see that Fletching method. Says the person getting 200m skills in easy skills and not even maxed overall total. I don't want to start a discussion about me so just end this here. Fast skills are more efficient since a update to speed slow skills reduce more hours than in a fast skill. Also, I don't care about maxed total lvl. 200m Dungeoneering would give me about 2m Cooking Xp, so I didn't wasted much more than 2 hours. Also, I belive Dungeoneering will get more updates in the future and eventually the Xp rate will be higher. Besides that, I hate Dungeoneering. I wasn't flaming Dragonseance, I even have him added. I was just saying that I clearly can't understand how people and him self call effiicient. I don't even care if he is efficient or not, but don't say he is when he isn't. This is just my opinion, I'm not flamming. Also, don't make a big deal out of this. I know many people favorite skill is Drama, but please avoid training that this time :razz: My youtube channel with efficient skilling guides and achievements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tintin113 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I don't see how people and himself say that Dragonseance is efficiet now I see that Fletching method. Says the person getting 200m skills in easy skills and not even maxed overall total. I don't want to start a discussion about me so just end this here. Fast skills are more efficient since a update to speed slow skills reduce more hours than in a fast skill. Also, I don't care about maxed total lvl. 200m Dungeoneering would give me about 2m Cooking Xp, so I didn't wasted much more than 2 hours. Also, I belive Dungeoneering will get more updates in the future and eventually the Xp rate will be higher. Besides that, I hate Dungeoneering. I wasn't flaming Dragonseance, I even have him added. I was just saying that I clearly can't understand how people and him self call effiicient. This is just my opinion, I'm not flamming. Also, don't make a big deal out of this. Grammar please. Also it would be productive to post why you don't understand it, post a better method for example, rather than just posting a comment that at the very least implies negativity. Thanks to Quarra for the awesome sig!Xbox360 Gamertag = Tintin113 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrS3 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Love how this thread gets off topic every two pages. Going for max total. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xensure Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Would it be smart to corp for crims/blues for 96 summoning so I can use yak to slay. Or would wyverns/wfs be a better option? I figure with corp I have a chance (albeit small) of a sigil which would be nice since I lost all my dicing profits from being hacked recently. Peace,Vann Based on your stats if you want 99 slayer eventually I would just do that. Doing that would also get you 99 defense. If you are looking to profit to after shard and second costs I would do TDs with a polypore hybrid rather than corp, they are fairly slow charms, but you would also probably get 99 defense in that time and certainly profit. You could also make a decent amount at wyverns if you yak the bones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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