200M in all Skills

[Zizoz]

Do we even know for sure that all the necessary skills are determined before the effigy is investigated once? I submit that it is more likely that there are only eight types of each level of effigy.

 

Edit: Actually, it would still have to «remember» what skills were used to avoid doubling up on them. So I guess that doesn't work.

[Lord Paul]

How do we know if effigies don't stack when there is 4096 different combination of effigies? Could simply be you never had the same one twice. Just a theory.

 

4096 effigiees would be 368,640,000 exp in investigation and 196,726,784 exp if used on a skill leveled 99.

 

I take it by now if it were true they stacked, someone would have proved it by now thus declaring that as false.

If you're familiar with the "Birthday problem" in statistics, we can apply the same logic.

 

http://en.wikipedia....irthday_problem

 

Anyways, the chances that 2 effigies are exactly the same combination, even in a relatively small sample size, is much higher than expected. Even with just 80 effigies that have 4096 possibilities, we have a 54% chance that an effigy will be repeated. From the sample size of over 400 that Mithril collected, it would have been 1/billions of a chance that none stacked, which was the case.

 

The calculation for the chance of a repeat in 80 effigies is below:

 

http://www.wolframal...F+%284096^80%29

8*8*8*8 =4096. 8 number of double options and 4 different stages says 4096. Ok it wouldn't be 100% accurate but it'd likely be close. Mithril got roughly a 10% sample becuase of the bank limits. He probably had the single most amount of effigies at one time than anyn other player and hand't found a stack. That doesn't mean it doesn't actually exist.

 

Its like me saying the runescape highscores doesn't go over 4B exp, no one has disproved it therefore at this moment in time it is correct as that's how science goes.

Do you not understand statistics at all.........

Going by Mithril's final video, having 512 effigies...

 

 

There still is that 1/3.26105365781218125244094176610945024285795682897985401323552500099409438625591680007306013486857426354101266 × 10¹⁵ chance.. He probably just got very unlucky as 512/4096 (which conveniently equals 1/8) is not a large enough sample size to give confidence.. If we get 7 moar people, we will have 4096/4096=1 so that means we can finally prove/disprove the stackability of effigies.

I can has statistician award now? :rolleyes:

 

 

Anyways, on topic... a tad late congratz to Suomi on 200m def!! gl with finishing crawlering :)

[Anticipate]

Why is Elvis chopping down his magic trees?

[miracleman58]

I think the effigies are all randomly generated every time you open a stage, They wouldnt be pre-determined. So its easier just to stack them as single objects.

[Rjk]

Who do you think will be second person to 200M all?

My best guess would be Dapledo. Can't see Jake achieving 200m.

Some others unheard of could, for example Carcass is going for 200m all and can withstand those horrible skills for long periods of time.

However, he doesn't have the cash, so he'll be Rc'ing and other stuff to make the cash.

Not sure if Carcass would be second, but he'll be top 5 IMO.

[Dheginsea]

Grats to Suomi and I'm a bit late on the whole paperbag thing but wb.

[Quyneax]

Suomi up to 24m base (surprise). Depending on effigy luck, 26m base will be achieved tomorrow/day after :blink:. After that it's hunter as lowest again.

[Jadinko]

Anyone remember that guy with a 1000 days play time that got banned? Which was like 2 years ago now?

[Robb]

I know eveyrone thinks SUOMI will get 200m all skills first, but you're sadly mistaken. My BFBF (best friend boy friend) Rich Guy Not will be getting 200m all skills first. As Jebrim knows, he will be doing Runecrafting as his second 200m, on Nature runes. Then he will focus on 200m slayer (without cannoning as to save money for buyables) then he will focus on Agility, and be a pro like Jebrim. 69,696,969 exp month? Easy as Jebrim. (l0l)

 

Also, I'd like to let everyone know that I, Robb, will be going for 200m all skills at level 3. I began with Woodcutting, and 3 months 4 days in I am at 62.7m exp. My next 200m will be agility so I can join the True Masters of Agility clan chat and be best friends/lovers with Jebrim.

 

 

Jeb, I was just wondering, whats the max exp at barb agility? I heard if you incorporate 1 lap of regular barbarian per hour you'll potentially save 3 ticks every 17 hours, adding up to over 13,456.98 exp saved over the course of 200M. I was wondering if this is true.

 

I'd also like to let everyone know that once I max out all skills 200m will be saving up infinite I mean 50k brainpoints on 153 accounts so that I can have over 1b exp saved over other accounts and beat Jebrizzle on the course to 1trill Agilitease experiance.

Edited January 22, 2012 by Ellac
Removed some stuff.

[Blizaga57]

This post has been edited by Ellac: Today, 04:43 PM

Reason for edit: Removed some stuff.

 

Can you pm me the whole post robb? I'm curious what the mods felt was so objectionable that it had to be censored.

 

Also, late gratz on 15 200m's suomi!

[la la la]

[hide=ot stat argument]

How do we know if effigies don't stack when there is 4096 different combination of effigies? Could simply be you never had the same one twice. Just a theory.

 

4096 effigiees would be 368,640,000 exp in investigation and 196,726,784 exp if used on a skill leveled 99.

 

I take it by now if it were true they stacked, someone would have proved it by now thus declaring that as false.

If you're familiar with the "Birthday problem" in statistics, we can apply the same logic.

 

http://en.wikipedia....irthday_problem

 

Anyways, the chances that 2 effigies are exactly the same combination, even in a relatively small sample size, is much higher than expected. Even with just 80 effigies that have 4096 possibilities, we have a 54% chance that an effigy will be repeated. From the sample size of over 400 that Mithril collected, it would have been 1/billions of a chance that none stacked, which was the case.

 

The calculation for the chance of a repeat in 80 effigies is below:

 

http://www.wolframal...F+%284096^80%29

8*8*8*8 =4096. 8 number of double options and 4 different stages says 4096. Ok it wouldn't be 100% accurate but it'd likely be close. Mithril got roughly a 10% sample becuase of the bank limits. He probably had the single most amount of effigies at one time than anyn other player and hand't found a stack. That doesn't mean it doesn't actually exist.

 

Its like me saying the runescape highscores doesn't go over 4B exp, no one has disproved it therefore at this moment in time it is correct as that's how science goes.

Do you not understand statistics at all.........

Going by Mithril's final video, having 512 effigies...

 

 

There still is that 1/3.26105365781218125244094176610945024285795682897985401323552500099409438625591680007306013486857426354101266 × 10¹⁵ chance.. He probably just got very unlucky as 512/4096 (which conveniently equals 1/8) is not a large enough sample size to give confidence.. If we get 7 moar people, we will have 4096/4096=1 so that means we can finally prove/disprove the stackability of effigies.

I can has statistician award now? :rolleyes:

 

 

Anyways, on topic... a tad late congratz to Suomi on 200m def!! gl with finishing crawlering :)

[/hide]

I would let this die if you guys would stop bringing up horrible statistics. Read the wikipedia article or something.

[vans113]

o

 

Edited January 22, 2012 by Ellac
Fixed image

[godrunt]

Anyone remember that guy with a 1000 days play time that got banned? Which was like 2 years ago now?

Satanslilboy

65% of his game time was played at fight pits

[Lord Paul]

[hide=ot stat argument]

How do we know if effigies don't stack when there is 4096 different combination of effigies? Could simply be you never had the same one twice. Just a theory.

 

4096 effigiees would be 368,640,000 exp in investigation and 196,726,784 exp if used on a skill leveled 99.

 

I take it by now if it were true they stacked, someone would have proved it by now thus declaring that as false.

If you're familiar with the "Birthday problem" in statistics, we can apply the same logic.

 

http://en.wikipedia....irthday_problem

 

Anyways, the chances that 2 effigies are exactly the same combination, even in a relatively small sample size, is much higher than expected. Even with just 80 effigies that have 4096 possibilities, we have a 54% chance that an effigy will be repeated. From the sample size of over 400 that Mithril collected, it would have been 1/billions of a chance that none stacked, which was the case.

 

The calculation for the chance of a repeat in 80 effigies is below:

 

http://www.wolframal...F+%284096^80%29

8*8*8*8 =4096. 8 number of double options and 4 different stages says 4096. Ok it wouldn't be 100% accurate but it'd likely be close. Mithril got roughly a 10% sample becuase of the bank limits. He probably had the single most amount of effigies at one time than anyn other player and hand't found a stack. That doesn't mean it doesn't actually exist.

 

Its like me saying the runescape highscores doesn't go over 4B exp, no one has disproved it therefore at this moment in time it is correct as that's how science goes.

Do you not understand statistics at all.........

Going by Mithril's final video, having 512 effigies...

 

 

There still is that 1/3.26105365781218125244094176610945024285795682897985401323552500099409438625591680007306013486857426354101266 × 10¹⁵ chance.. He probably just got very unlucky as 512/4096 (which conveniently equals 1/8) is not a large enough sample size to give confidence.. If we get 7 moar people, we will have 4096/4096=1 so that means we can finally prove/disprove the stackability of effigies.

I can has statistician award now? :rolleyes:

 

 

Anyways, on topic... a tad late congratz to Suomi on 200m def!! gl with finishing crawlering :)

[/hide]

I would let this die if you guys would stop bringing up horrible statistics. Read the wikipedia article or something.

 

For everyone out there that is cringing after reading my argument, I was joking. I read the wikipedia article a few months ago and just decided to make this as some sort of proof. :P

[The_Fray]

I know eveyrone thinks SUOMI will get 200m all skills first, but you're sadly mistaken. My BFBF (best friend boy friend) Rich Guy Not will be getting 200m all skills first. As Jebrim knows, he will be doing Runecrafting as his second 200m, on Nature runes. Then he will focus on 200m slayer (without cannoning as to save money for buyables) then he will focus on Agility, and be a pro like Jebrim. 69,696,969 exp month? Easy as Jebrim. (l0l)

 

Also, I'd like to let everyone know that I, Robb, will be going for 200m all skills at level 3. I began with Woodcutting, and 3 months 4 days in I am at 62.7m exp. My next 200m will be agility so I can join the True Masters of Agility clan chat and be best friends/lovers with Jebrim.

 

 

Jeb, I was just wondering, whats the max exp at barb agility? I heard if you incorporate 1 lap of regular barbarian per hour you'll potentially save 3 ticks every 17 hours, adding up to over 13,456.98 exp saved over the course of 200M. I was wondering if this is true.

 

I'd also like to let everyone know that once I max out all skills 200m will be saving up infinite I mean 50k brainpoints on 153 accounts so that I can have over 1b exp saved over other accounts and beat Jebrizzle on the course to 1trill Agilitease experiance.

My question is whether you can no life agility for hours on end? If you are doing less than 22 hours a day of no lifing agility then you will not stand a chance of getting 200m agility. Everything also depends on if you are "conditioned" to fast skills, because if you have done a lot of xp in fast skills and have no experience in agility then you will never get 200m all skills. This may only be bypassed with the help of the greatest agilitiser of all time Jebrim, you will have to work with him hours on end and only with his approval can you then achieve 200m agility. Also do you happen to find "tick saving" to be a fun and enjoyable activity, if so then you might stand a chance after all.

 

PS: If you have done ivy for any of that wcing experience, you deserve to be shot (literally) for "legal botting".

[Gemeos2]

I have been getting 300k Thiev XP/hr solo at PP now. Same xp/hr of monkey guards and much easier.

[Capo_di_Capi]

I have been getting 300k Thiev XP/hr solo at PP now. Same xp/hr of monkey guards and much easier.

 

I thought the max was ~275k duo? Something changed? I did monkeys myself and have no knowledge of PP whatsoever, bare with me.

[Gemeos2]

I have been getting 300k Thiev XP/hr solo at PP now. Same xp/hr of monkey guards and much easier.

 

I thought the max was ~275k duo? Something changed? I did monkeys myself and have no knowledge of PP whatsoever, bare with me.

 

Sceptre of gods.

[Jordyy]

[hide=ot stat argument]

How do we know if effigies don't stack when there is 4096 different combination of effigies? Could simply be you never had the same one twice. Just a theory.

 

4096 effigiees would be 368,640,000 exp in investigation and 196,726,784 exp if used on a skill leveled 99.

 

I take it by now if it were true they stacked, someone would have proved it by now thus declaring that as false.

If you're familiar with the "Birthday problem" in statistics, we can apply the same logic.

 

http://en.wikipedia....irthday_problem

 

Anyways, the chances that 2 effigies are exactly the same combination, even in a relatively small sample size, is much higher than expected. Even with just 80 effigies that have 4096 possibilities, we have a 54% chance that an effigy will be repeated. From the sample size of over 400 that Mithril collected, it would have been 1/billions of a chance that none stacked, which was the case.

 

The calculation for the chance of a repeat in 80 effigies is below:

 

http://www.wolframal...F+%284096^80%29

8*8*8*8 =4096. 8 number of double options and 4 different stages says 4096. Ok it wouldn't be 100% accurate but it'd likely be close. Mithril got roughly a 10% sample becuase of the bank limits. He probably had the single most amount of effigies at one time than anyn other player and hand't found a stack. That doesn't mean it doesn't actually exist.

 

Its like me saying the runescape highscores doesn't go over 4B exp, no one has disproved it therefore at this moment in time it is correct as that's how science goes.

Do you not understand statistics at all.........

Going by Mithril's final video, having 512 effigies...

 

 

There still is that 1/3.26105365781218125244094176610945024285795682897985401323552500099409438625591680007306013486857426354101266 × 10¹⁵ chance.. He probably just got very unlucky as 512/4096 (which conveniently equals 1/8) is not a large enough sample size to give confidence.. If we get 7 moar people, we will have 4096/4096=1 so that means we can finally prove/disprove the stackability of effigies.

I can has statistician award now? :rolleyes:

 

 

Anyways, on topic... a tad late congratz to Suomi on 200m def!! gl with finishing crawlering :)

[/hide]

I would let this die if you guys would stop bringing up horrible statistics. Read the wikipedia article or something.

 

For everyone out there that is cringing after reading my argument, I was joking. I read the wikipedia article a few months ago and just decided to make this as some sort of proof. :P

I've read this several weeks ago and thouht it was utter tosh. In a self conducted servery of 100000 people who had a birthday on the 1st of jan I found that they all shared the same birthday. Therefore EVERYONE shares the same birthday. I also conducted a survey in my class on those who liked monday mornings. No one liked monday morning there for 100% of the population dislikes monday mornings. I conducted a servey with myself on favourite foods and found that lasagne was the top choice. It might be a safe bet to say it's everyone favourite choice.

 

Statistics can be so easy manipulated that it's best to take them with a pinch of salt. I still stand there there is 8 combinations of each stage and there is 4 stages. 8^4 does = 4096. But I guess there is a block which stop you having two things in one effigy which will half it. I only have a GCSE understanding of math and that is only C grade.

[brunokiller]

You don't get it then.

[Lord Paul]

You don't get it then.

This.

 

But the birthday problem is kinda mind-boggling unless you sit down and think about it for a while.

Oh and most people don't like Monday mornings -especially kiddies in school-, so great example. :rolleyes:

[Platinum_Myr]

Statistics can easily be manipulated to a person's advantage. However well formed statistical analysis is useful for some understanding. The birthday paradox is real, and easy to show. If you don't understand the graphs, charts, or data study or get help. If it doesn't match with well known studies or proper mathematical rigor and form, then dismiss it. But don't just dismiss statistics because someone misused them.

 

The world is full of many science and math problems which are not intuitive. Intuition is a process that solves many common problems, but does not work in many situations. It isn't evidence.

 

If you don't trust the math, run a simulation picking effigy/birthday combinations at random and figure out how common at least two being the same is.

[The Runar]

Statistics and random chance seem to be hard concepts for people. You're certainly not the only one.

 

It's easy to calculate by yourself though. As Wikipedia says, with 23 people you have 253 possible pairs. The chance of a pair sharing the same birthday is 1/365, so the chance of at least one in 253 pairs sharing the same birthday is 1 - ( (364 / 365) ^ 253 ) = ~0,5 = 50%.

 

It's easier to understand if you think about the possible pairs anyway, as Wikipedia again says. The number of possible pairs rises exponentially, so with 50 people you can already make 1225 pairs, and with 100 you can make 4950 pairs.

 

Well, I'm not going to discuss it any further, because it's not really my problem and it's off-topic anyway. You're still much better than the idiots on RSOF.

[Xensure]

I've read this several weeks ago and thouht it was utter tosh. In a self conducted servery of 100000 people who had a birthday on the 1st of jan I found that they all shared the same birthday. Therefore EVERYONE shares the same birthday. I also conducted a survey in my class on those who liked monday mornings. No one liked monday morning there for 100% of the population dislikes monday mornings. I conducted a servey with myself on favourite foods and found that lasagne was the top choice. It might be a safe bet to say it's everyone favourite choice.

 

This is not at all how statistics works... Your assumptions about the population from your sample have a certain confidence, you neglect to mention them or even understand them. This is why the birthday problem makes no sense to you.

 

Statistics can be so easy manipulated that it's best to take them with a pinch of salt. I still stand there there is 8 combinations of each stage and there is 4 stages. 8^4 does = 4096. But I guess there is a block which stop you having two things in one effigy which will half it. I only have a GCSE understanding of math and that is only C grade.

 

Statistics can not be manipulated. It is an exact science. The meaning behind the statistical outcome can be misrepresented and/or misunderstood.

 

Long story short effigies do not stack. The easiest way to understand this is that the four pairs of skills that any given effigy goes through is not determined upon the drop. Each time a player opens a stage the game rolls a die for the next stage's pair.

 

/argument lets move on.

[Jordyy]

I will say an off topic thank you. I never get to talk about this kind of stuff with people I know as no one I know even cares about this kind of stuff. Seems odd to think that we all study accountancy in my class and are only just going onto ratios. I was so proud when I did longdivision in an exam and told my step dad. He, needless to say, was not impressed.

 

 

I noticed SUOMI's lowest skill is Hunter and that's almost double 99! incredible! I remember that day when N0valyfe was #1 for a few hours.