3rd Age/Spirit shields/Phats Discussion

[Methud]

Alright I got it thanks everyone.

[timmmmm83]

I noticed on the discontinued part of RSOF that bigtime merchants/hoarders are buying santa's and halloweens en masse for 50/50 to 70/30 to get rid of their crashing junk before free trade kicks in. They are getting rid of their junk and are left with lots of lower rares in their bank. Would seem weird to me that they are just taking the loss and try to do nothing about it.

 

Why would they do this if they think santa's and h'weens are going to keep on crashing?

Is the fall of lower rares (and maybe edibles) orchestrated to get rid of billions upon billions of junk?

 

I think they are handily abusing the mass-panic and lower rares will bounce right up in a couple of days...

 

(warning: i'm maybe biased since I own a h'ween mask set + 4 santas :razz: )

[green9090]

I noticed on the discontinued part of RSOF that bigtime merchants/hoarders are buying santa's and halloweens en masse for 50/50 to 70/30 to get rid of their crashing junk before free trade kicks in. They are getting rid of their junk and are left with lots of lower rares in their bank. Would seem weird to me that they are just taking the loss and try to do nothing about it.

 

Why would they do this if they think santa's and h'weens are going to keep on crashing?

Is the fall of lower rares (and maybe edibles) orchestrated to get rid of billions upon billions of junk?

 

I think they are handily abusing the mass-panic and lower rares will bounce right up in a couple of days...

You talk like there's some secret group of players who are in charge of prices.

 

The crash happened because people wanted to sell their lower rares on the ge and found that they couldn't do it for min. That means nobody wants to buy lower rares at the GE price. That's not the sort of thing that can be orchestrated by a group- if there was legitimate demand then the 50/50 offers would be ignored.

 

What happened is simple- speculators hoarding lower rares gathered that free trade was coming back, and that means old accounts with stocks of rares coming back and bringing their rares into the market. That means a crash. So they dumped their stocks, creating excess demand and, by extension, panic.

 

Now, players who have a significant amount of their net worth invested in lower rares are looking at losing half their bank and are desperate to get rid of their rares at any price. Meanwhile, very rich junk traders are looking at the prospect of hundreds of millions of their junk becoming absolutely useless for trading in the near future and need to get rid of it.

 

The two markets mesh perfectly. The people with enough money to ride out the crash holding several lower rares without tying up their entire bank in crashing items buy all the lower rares, and the people with too much of their money tied up in a rare to watch it crash sell theirs.

[timmmmm83]

You talk like there's some secret group of players who are in charge of prices.

 

The crash happened because people wanted to sell their lower rares on the ge and found that they couldn't do it for min. That means nobody wants to buy lower rares at the GE price. That's not the sort of thing that can be orchestrated by a group- if there was legitimate demand then the 50/50 offers would be ignored.

 

What happened is simple- speculators hoarding lower rares gathered that free trade was coming back, and that means old accounts with stocks of rares coming back and bringing their rares into the market. That means a crash. So they dumped their stocks, creating excess demand and, by extension, panic.

 

Now, players who have a significant amount of their net worth invested in lower rares are looking at losing half their bank and are desperate to get rid of their rares at any price. Meanwhile, very rich junk traders are looking at the prospect of hundreds of millions of their junk becoming absolutely useless for trading in the near future and need to get rid of it.

 

The two markets mesh perfectly. The people with enough money to ride out the crash holding several lower rares without tying up their entire bank in crashing items buy all the lower rares, and the people with too much of their money tied up in a rare to watch it crash sell theirs.

Illuminati! :shades:

 

But no, not exactly a secret group, but I think some have enough wealth to stir the lower rares market if a sufficient ammount of their cash is tied up in them.

 

At what price do you think lower rares (and santa in particular) will bottom out?

[green9090]

I can't begin to speculate on what the market will do when free trade comes back. It's been a long time since items have moved independent of the GE, so prices can be a lot more wild than before.

[PereGrin]

I can't begin to speculate on what the market will do when free trade comes back. It's been a long time since items have moved independent of the GE, so prices can be a lot more wild than before.

I think everyone is going to panic and give me all of their stuff for free ;)

 

probably not, but it would be nice.

 

Perhaps at least some of the currently unbuyable stuff on the ge will become buyable. Lower partyhats and divines maybe?

[green9090]

I can't begin to speculate on what the market will do when free trade comes back. It's been a long time since items have moved independent of the GE, so prices can be a lot more wild than before.

I think everyone is going to panic and give me all of their stuff for free ;)

 

probably not, but it would be nice.

 

Perhaps at least some of the currently unbuyable stuff on the ge will become buyable. Lower partyhats and divines maybe?

They'll all be buyable. The only reason anything isn't buyable is because the GE doesn't allow it, but with free trade the proper prices can be used easily.

[PereGrin]

I can't begin to speculate on what the market will do when free trade comes back. It's been a long time since items have moved independent of the GE, so prices can be a lot more wild than before.

I think everyone is going to panic and give me all of their stuff for free ;)

 

probably not, but it would be nice.

 

Perhaps at least some of the currently unbuyable stuff on the ge will become buyable. Lower partyhats and divines maybe?

They'll all be buyable. The only reason anything isn't buyable is because the GE doesn't allow it, but with free trade the proper prices can be used easily.

I don't think you can buy green red white or blue for max cash now, or crackers or wines, so I can't imagine that you will be able to buy them after this. Unless all the old stakers return and bring back a bunch of rares to flood the market with.

[Logdotzip]

i recall the rares market being extremely volatile at some times in w2 falador. I was trying to buy a santa for 23m when most were selling for 23.5. so i left for 20 mins. i came back people were buying santas for 26m and no one was selling. People catch on that if they just choose not to sell their items, people *will* have to offer more. They see the offers around them and follow suit.

 

Now maybe this won't happen due to the lack of a mass of people, when using the GE, but Im worried for those who cant just throw money at an item because theyre rich. a lot of offers used to be made by looking at similar offers around them in falador park. that aspect might be missing when free trade is reinstated. im gonna feel bad for players who are uncertain of an items rough price and keep in an offer that has no shot in hell of being completed.

[Wessan]

I think the market for everything including rares will be volatile for awhile following the switch; however, a free market usually stabilizes itself over time. I'd give it 6 months following update to be stable.

[green9090]

I don't think you can buy green red white or blue for max cash now, or crackers or wines, so I can't imagine that you will be able to buy them after this. Unless all the old stakers return and bring back a bunch of rares to flood the market with.

Protip: junk has value.

 

Also, I'm pretty sure you could still just offer a stack of cash plus something like a stack of santa hats or whatever placeholder items you want, even if the result is over 2b worth of stuff. I could be wrong though- I've never actually had max cash before.

[stonewall337]

Junk will have no value. Lower rares may crash, but can still be sold. Unless the GE floor is removed, and then some junk may have a slight value.

[PereGrin]

I don't think you can buy green red white or blue for max cash now, or crackers or wines, so I can't imagine that you will be able to buy them after this. Unless all the old stakers return and bring back a bunch of rares to flood the market with.

Protip: junk has value.

 

Also, I'm pretty sure you could still just offer a stack of cash plus something like a stack of santa hats or whatever placeholder items you want, even if the result is over 2b worth of stuff. I could be wrong though- I've never actually had max cash before.

Yeah, me neither. But I was working off of the fact that a blue is ~5bil street. And figure that becaues of junk, 5bil street works out to ~3bil or so cash which is still over max cash limit. That's just a rough estimate figuring in the price of junk, which ends up selling at like 50/50 or something right?

 

Idk, its late, and I cbf to actually do math on xmas break. lol.

 

Long and short version: If you figure junk as 50% value, 5bil street works out to be 3bil "GE value", or something like that, I think.

[green9090]

Most junk is worth more than 50%, but you've got the right idea.

[bedman]

Phas won't be as high as their value + 50% of the junk they get sold with. Part of the reason they are so high is because of their unbuyable status. I don't see a blue over 2B when free trades comes out. Purple will probably be like 600-700m, not higher, I think.

[999134]

I don't know the rwt price of phats, but couldn't you use that + the rwt price of gold to work out a good value.

[Trollface]

Gold sells for about $1.50 and purple phats about $90 after taking a quick look on some websites.

[999134]

Would it be fair to place purple at around 550mil then?

[Star_Fox]

Phats are dropping dramatically. (Yellow for 1.1b.. :o ) Then again, everything in the rare market isn't doing so well.

[anonymouse_]

Can't wait to pick up a cheap green/white :thumbup:

[Bladewing]

guess one can upgrade green to red for 250m junk.

 

divines are doing quite well

[Bloodstain]

I'm so conflicted. I've got two red masks + a green + a santa which is worth over 400M now, and if free trade comes out then they'll drop and so will party hat. I can't decide whether to keep them and hope that the gap between purple and all my rares isn't ridiculous, or sell them and hope that purple will be 400 - 500M :ohnoes:

[xpx]

Phats are dropping dramatically. (Yellow for 1.1b.. :o ) Then again, everything in the rare market isn't doing so well.

Makes sense as they'll no longer be the preferred stack of wealth- they'll no longer keep and increase over a long period of time, so, as a symbol of wealth/status, they'll be more accessible.

[Pete Party]

Herblore items will strongly change in price.

 

But I don't see why rares would get more expensive....more than the trend I mean.

 

Also don't see why they would drop far below.

[anonymouse_]

Herblore items will strongly change in price.

 

But I don't see why rares would get more expensive....more than the trend I mean.

 

Also don't see why they would drop far below.

Old stakers returning = lots of peehats