3rd Age/Spirit shields/Phats Discussion

[Unb34t4bl3]

Free Trade, Panic, and Profit

 

Pretty good quick read on what happened during this past week from the newest FT staff member. :)

[Wessan]

I got a santa for 75mil. I dont ever plan on selling it however was it a good or terrible decision not to wait?

 

I keep hearing that the price is stabalizing around 70mil and I also keep hearing that it will drop to 25mil. What do you guys have to say about this?

It won't hit 25m.

 

It might stabilize at 70m for a little while, but prices like that will attract hoarders like crazy. It'll be back above 100m within a year unless something crazy happens like one of those big time hoarders dumping thousands of them.

 

Well looks like you were right, its already going back up - at 73mil again. This is a relief, buyers remorse sucks :lol:

 

Dont feel too bad, I bought a Santa before the free trade/wildy announcement (around 100mil) and look at em now. :thumbsup:

[green9090]

I got a santa for 75mil. I dont ever plan on selling it however was it a good or terrible decision not to wait?

 

I keep hearing that the price is stabalizing around 70mil and I also keep hearing that it will drop to 25mil. What do you guys have to say about this?

It won't hit 25m.

 

It might stabilize at 70m for a little while, but prices like that will attract hoarders like crazy. It'll be back above 100m within a year unless something crazy happens like one of those big time hoarders dumping thousands of them.

 

Well looks like you were right, its already going back up - at 73mil again. This is a relief, buyers remorse sucks :lol:

 

Dont feel too bad, I bought a Santa before the free trade/wildy announcement (around 100mil) and look at em now. :thumbsup:

Yeah, I "sniped" TWO disks of returning hours before their street price crashed. Very sad :(

[WeatherMatt]

An interesting factor with free trade will be what items sell for without the floor/ceiling. For floor, an example would be farseer helm, as well as body runes, willows, etc. For ceiling, addy arrowtips.

 

Most items that are floored won't fall much, if any, since the floor is also their high alch value (so by falling, they'll be snapped up by alchers for profit). Things like addy arrowtips will be interesting, to see how much they go up.

[stonewall337]

An interesting factor with free trade will be what items sell for without the floor/ceiling. For floor, an example would be farseer helm, as well as body runes, willows, etc. For ceiling, addy arrowtips.

 

Most items that are floored won't fall much, if any, since the floor is also their high alch value (so by falling, they'll be snapped up by alchers for profit). Things like addy arrowtips will be interesting, to see how much they go up.

 

Possibly temporarily profitable smithing xp. They will have future "street" (Read, make/buy now, sell for real price later) since they will be worth more then they are know.

[pk3d_by_mike]

can't wait till free trade comes back and merchanting actually takes skill and patience again :P

[ilovecuttingyews]

can't wait till free trade comes back and merchanting actually takes skill and patience again :P

I'm pretty sure that Jagex has already said they'll keep the GE. And without upper and lower limits, I forsee some people getting very very rich without having to take the large amounts of time it used to, and without having to resort to manipulation.

[Bloodstain]

Anyone know why ranging potions are taking a dive? I'm contemplating buying 1k of them for personal use, but if they're going to keep diving I might as well wait

[Dragonlordjl]

Anyone know why ranging potions are taking a dive? I'm contemplating buying 1k of them for personal use, but if they're going to keep diving I might as well wait

 

Seems like the entire market crashed so people could have cash for free trade.

 

If I was a would be invester the first things I would dump is my battle potions.

I am so looking forward to people buying/selling everything for twice what the GE price is once free trade returns. :rolleyes: Just because the money exists and because they can.

[green9090]

Anyone know why ranging potions are taking a dive? I'm contemplating buying 1k of them for personal use, but if they're going to keep diving I might as well wait

 

Seems like the entire market crashed so people could have cash for free trade.

 

If I was a would be invester the first things I would dump is my battle potions.

I am so looking forward to people buying/selling everything for twice what the GE price is once free trade returns. :rolleyes: Just because the money exists and because they can.

You really don't understand how the economy works, huh?

[Dragonlordjl]

Anyone know why ranging potions are taking a dive? I'm contemplating buying 1k of them for personal use, but if they're going to keep diving I might as well wait

 

Seems like the entire market crashed so people could have cash for free trade.

 

If I was a would be invester the first things I would dump is my battle potions.

I am so looking forward to people buying/selling everything for twice what the GE price is once free trade returns. :rolleyes: Just because the money exists and because they can.

You really don't understand how the economy works, huh?

Sure I do. I made a whole lot of money in the days before the trade limits by merchanting in W2 Fally.

 

What's to keep a clan of price manipulators who all have several of X item from gathering in that item's specific buy/sell area and spamming "Selling X item for <millions over the what the price was 5 minutes ago>." When there's a group of people all spamming something, and it's all people see, suddenly the price temporarily BECOMES that because if somebody wants what they're selling and they appear to be the only ones around selling it, then that's what the buyers have to pay. Sure, your average unaffiliated joe will undercut the clans, but chances are he only has one or two of the item they're selling and therefore will sell them quick and then the price will once again be controlled by the group.

 

Basically all I'm saying is that after these changes occur, the market is going to be a complete cluster**** for a while. Manipulation clans have gained such popularity in the GE era that I am positive they won't die out once free trade returns. The only change that will occur is that if you want something now and have money, you can once again pay more for convenience instead of waiting hours/days while the GE processes offers ahead of yours in the queue for an item with artificially inflated demand.

[Assume Nothing]

Anyone know why ranging potions are taking a dive? I'm contemplating buying 1k of them for personal use, but if they're going to keep diving I might as well wait

 

Seems like the entire market crashed so people could have cash for free trade.

 

If I was a would be invester the first things I would dump is my battle potions.

I am so looking forward to people buying/selling everything for twice what the GE price is once free trade returns. :rolleyes: Just because the money exists and because they can.

You really don't understand how the economy works, huh?

Sure I do. I made a whole lot of money in the days before the trade limits by merchanting in W2 Fally.

 

What's to keep a clan of price manipulators who all have several of X item from gathering in that item's specific buy/sell area and spamming "Selling X item for <millions over the what the price was 5 minutes ago>." When there's a group of people all spamming something, and it's all people see, suddenly the price temporarily BECOMES that because if somebody wants what they're selling and they appear to be the only ones around selling it, then that's what the buyers have to pay. Sure, your average unaffiliated joe will undercut the clans, but chances are he only has one or two of the item they're selling and therefore will sell them quick and then the price will once again be controlled by the group.

 

Basically all I'm saying is that after these changes occur, the market is going to be a complete cluster**** for a while. Manipulation clans have gained such popularity in the GE era that I am positive they won't die out once free trade returns. The only change that will occur is that if you want something now and have money, you can once again pay more for convenience instead of waiting hours/days while the GE processes offers ahead of yours in the queue for an item with artificially inflated demand.

 

Do you even understand supply and demand? No, that's not how people price manipulated before the GE.

 

I do agree that the market will be very very volatile after free trade until at least 2 months in, as the transition phase.

[ilovecuttingyews]

Do you even understand supply and demand? No, that's not how people price manipulated before the GE.

I do agree that the market will be very very volatile after free trade until at least 2 months in, as the transition phase.

No, it's not how it was manipulated before the GE, but since the GE has come out price manipulation has become the only way many people know how to make money. Not to mention the people who run those clans are going to find a way to continue leading mindless hoards of peons in pursuit of easy GP. I can already think of a few ways to do it using the GE system I think Jagex could use, but until we see what the real system is we can never really know if manipulation will work.

[Dragonlordjl]

Do you even understand supply and demand? No, that's not how people price manipulated before the GE.

I do agree that the market will be very very volatile after free trade until at least 2 months in, as the transition phase.

No, it's not how it was manipulated before the GE, but since the GE has come out price manipulation has become the only way many people know how to make money. Not to mention the people who run those clans are going to find a way to continue leading mindless hoards of peons in pursuit of easy GP. I can already think of a few ways to do it using the GE system I think Jagex could use, but until we see what the real system is we can never really know if manipulation will work.

This is what I was saying. I know that is not how price manipulation worked before the GE, but it's one plausible approach as to how it will work AFTER free trade returns.

[Pete Party]

The thing is, you don't know who you are dealing with in GE.

 

A buyer rather goes straight to the seller then to get them from a mercher.

[Bloodstain]

Alright, anyone know where the hell purple partyhats stand? I'm seeing some selling for 650M, some for trade, etc. What are my chances at one with:

2x red h'ween

1x green h'ween

1x santa

~25M cash

?

 

I'm going to start raising more cash, but are my chances going to be better now or after free trade comes out? I appreciate ANY advice because I feel it's finally within my grasp again

[wioneo]

Do you even understand supply and demand? No, that's not how people price manipulated before the GE.

I do agree that the market will be very very volatile after free trade until at least 2 months in, as the transition phase.

No, it's not how it was manipulated before the GE, but since the GE has come out price manipulation has become the only way many people know how to make money. Not to mention the people who run those clans are going to find a way to continue leading mindless hoards of peons in pursuit of easy GP. I can already think of a few ways to do it using the GE system I think Jagex could use, but until we see what the real system is we can never really know if manipulation will work.

This is what I was saying. I know that is not how price manipulation worked before the GE, but it's one plausible approach as to how it will work AFTER free trade returns.

 

People definately DID do exactly what you described before the GE in fally w2. Granted they could only maintain it for a couple hours or so, because those groups would only be 4-6 people, but even after they left, people who were around while the prices were inflated and haven't sold their stuff yet will continue with that price and it usually took a few hours for things to normalize again. That is with whips at least which were the only things that I could afford to buy multiples of then...

 

The thing is, you don't know who you are dealing with in GE.

 

A buyer rather goes straight to the seller then to get them from a mercher.

 

People don't wear hats that say "merchant," and the only way for someone to know by name is for them to have been trading similar items to that person for a long time, which would most likely keep them from being tricked anyway.

[gremmy]

Alright, anyone know where the hell purple partyhats stand? I'm seeing some selling for 650M, some for trade, etc. What are my chances at one with:

2x red h'ween

1x green h'ween

1x santa

~25M cash

?

 

I'm going to start raising more cash, but are my chances going to be better now or after free trade comes out? I appreciate ANY advice because I feel it's finally within my grasp again

 

Afaik, smaller rares are sold for junk+cash.

[SoulWars]

Personally, I think the value of discontinued items will increase as time goes on as they'll become more rare. The amount of coins entering or leaving the game could affect this, though.

 

As for spirit shields, their value will probably increase as the rarity decreases and the Torva armour is added.

 

3rd age sucks. Soon, people will realise that. Therefore, decrease in price.

 

 

That's just what I think, though. :)

[Elf Spice]

Alright, anyone know where the hell purple partyhats stand? I'm seeing some selling for 650M, some for trade, etc. What are my chances at one with:

2x red h'ween

1x green h'ween

1x santa

~25M cash

?

 

I'm going to start raising more cash, but are my chances going to be better now or after free trade comes out? I appreciate ANY advice because I feel it's finally within my grasp again

 

You don't have quite enough, you'll need 520m at the least, and that's to snipe it off the GE. I think people are starting to realize that free trade isn't coming out in the early part of this year, so phats may be on the rise again soon.

[Bladewing]

i think green h'weens have one more drop update in them before they rebound (although it'll probably just be a blip like the santa rebound).

 

blues i figure have probably two drops. not sure on reds, and they update less anyway.

[TheAncient]

so just to be clear, div shot up to like a red or something? and ely's still 400m+junk

[Logdotzip]

worth a red now? well f*** me.

[Bladewing]

worth a red now? well f*** me.

haven't seen anyone actually sell a divine for anything over green. they can post their high prices all they want but no one is paying them.

[Master_Smither]

worth a red now? well f*** me.

 

Divine is green and at most and sells for yellow if you're persistent. Divine probably won't reach red unless it's 100% required at the new GWD.