3rd Age/Spirit shields/Phats Discussion

[ilovecuttingyews]

Herblore items will strongly change in price.

But I don't see why rares would get more expensive....more than the trend I mean.

Also don't see why they would drop far below.

Old stakers returning = lots of peehats

That's assuming people who quit this game 3 years ago still follow the news which is unlikely. Perhaps they play other games and there will me murmurs around, but I would venture a guess and say the number of old school stakers who quit returning will be quite small.

[999134]

Herblore items will strongly change in price.

But I don't see why rares would get more expensive....more than the trend I mean.

Also don't see why they would drop far below.

Old stakers returning = lots of peehats

That's assuming people who quit this game 3 years ago still follow the news which is unlikely. Perhaps they play other games and there will me murmurs around, but I would venture a guess and say the number of old school stakers who quit returning will be quite small.

Only takes one guy with 1k phats to return >.>

[Pete Party]

Most stakers with lots of p-hats got banned anyway, so don't see them returning.

 

There are people returning with p-hats yes, but I know some and they don't sell because they have a huge cash pile too so they don't need money.

 

 

 

Any1 remember when they banned 20.000 people, mainly rwt and hackers and such....p-hats rose with over 100%-200% (wasnt that in 2005?)

[Bladewing]

there are people returning with phats, yes. but there will also be many more players returning without phats who demand them. there is not enough information do conclude which cause, increased supply or increased demand, will dominate.

[stonewall337]

This will be interesting. Wonder how edibles will do. I'm guessing lower rares will drop in relation to their GE price.

 

I hope the new GE would give some way of checking what offers/items are in for what price, some what like WOW's auctionhouse.

[green9090]

there are people returning with phats, yes. but there will also be many more players returning without phats who demand them. there is not enough information do conclude which cause, increased supply or increased demand, will dominate.

A big part of it is going to be which group panics.

 

Right now that's looking like the sellers.

[Bladewing]

i think it's moreso a panic dump of junk than a panic dump of phats. i could be wrong, of course.

[Unb34t4bl3]

i think it's moreso a panic dump of junk than a panic dump of phats. i could be wrong, of course.

 

Definitely a panic of junk. All junk is basically worthless now. There's no 50% cash-back guarantee at the end now, as we have no idea when free trade is coming. Nobody wants to be holding any amount of junk because it could go from being worth half GE value to nothing overnight. Players are now doing whatever they must to get rid of it.

 

What we're seeing is partyhats now approaching true value, as you might as well consider the junk a 100% loss in trade.

 

But still, I believe there is a possibility that purple may drop to GE value and below if things get bad enough (purely due to all the panic). Yellow could go either way, and green and higher are very safe IMO. When the dust settles after the update I predict the following stable prices:

 

Purple: 625M

Yellow: 675M

Green: 750M

Red: 900M

White: 1100M

Blue: 1500M

[Magbill]

I hope they settle at those sort of prices, because over a long period of time i could build up to that. In free trade rares should be buyable for pure cash right?

[Elf Spice]

What do you guys think will happen to 3rd age? I want to invest in a 3rd age melee set since I think old wildy might drive the price up.

 

And on the RSOF people are selling half wines for 1B! I thought the street on wines was like 50% more than blue? But now it has less street than yellow.

 

edit: nvm it looks like wines were under blue for a while.

[stonewall337]

What do you guys think will happen to 3rd age? I want to invest in a 3rd age melee set since I think old wildy might drive the price up.

 

And on the RSOF people are selling half wines for 1B! I thought the street on wines was like 50% more than blue? But now it has less street than yellow.

 

edit: nvm it looks like wines were under blue for a while.

I've seen half wines sell for over 1,000 USD on certain web sites. This is surprising.

[SixFootOne]

What do you guys think will happen to 3rd age? I want to invest in a 3rd age melee set since I think old wildy might drive the price up.

 

And on the RSOF people are selling half wines for 1B! I thought the street on wines was like 50% more than blue? But now it has less street than yellow.

 

edit: nvm it looks like wines were under blue for a while.

 

I don't see any reason for third age to really rise in price or why the old wildy would drive third age's price up (explain why you think so?) Only more comes in game, not to mention speculation of new armor/boss (see the frozen door thread and the life boosting armor thread), as well as a promised smithing update. It will probably still hold a decent value, but with the information we have no i don't see it gaining anything.

[Bloodstain]

Any predictions on halloween masks and santas?

[Elf Spice]

As for why I think 3rd age might rise...Well partyhats crashed from Early 08' until June '09. All the big merchers held their stock in 3rd age during this period. I think the PVP update in June and the inflation from statues it brought is what caused the phats to be bought out again and 3rd age to crash because people wanted a safeguard against inflation, and third-age wasn't it. So when old wilderness comes along, the statues will be removed. And clue hunting will be more difficult with pkers on the prowl. Junk traders/merchers are scrambling now to consolidate their wealth on other items but haven't settled on exactly what yet. After free trade/old wildy we will enter into a deflationary period, and so I think 3rd age has a good chance of being bought out again soon.

[SixFootOne]

As for why I think 3rd age might rise...Well partyhats crashed from Early 08' until June '09. All the big merchers held their stock in 3rd age during this period. I think the PVP update in June and the inflation from statues it brought is what caused the phats to be bought out again and 3rd age to crash because people wanted a safeguard against inflation, and third-age wasn't it. So when old wilderness comes along, the statues will be removed. And clue hunting will be more difficult with pkers on the prowl. Junk traders/merchers are scrambling now to consolidate their wealth on other items but haven't settled on exactly what yet. After free trade/old wildy we will enter into a deflationary period, and so I think 3rd age has a good chance of being bought out again soon.

 

Ok i understand. Keep in mind with free trade buy outs won't work like it does now.

[Bloodstain]

As for why I think 3rd age might rise...Well partyhats crashed from Early 08' until June '09. All the big merchers held their stock in 3rd age during this period. I think the PVP update in June and the inflation from statues it brought is what caused the phats to be bought out again and 3rd age to crash because people wanted a safeguard against inflation, and third-age wasn't it. So when old wilderness comes along, the statues will be removed. And clue hunting will be more difficult with pkers on the prowl. Junk traders/merchers are scrambling now to consolidate their wealth on other items but haven't settled on exactly what yet. After free trade/old wildy we will enter into a deflationary period, and so I think 3rd age has a good chance of being bought out again soon.

 

Didn't merchants move from 3A -> phats because Jagex changed the % the price can increase/decrease by?

[Elf Spice]

 

Didn't merchants move from 3A -> phats because Jagex changed the % the price can increase/decrease by?

 

I believe phats had 1% margins before/while they crashed in 08, but my memory may be wrong.

[Bloodstain]

Whoops, when I said % they can change I meant 3A

[Elf Spice]

Weren't 3A always 5%? I don't recall Jagex ever messing with them.

 

And I was browsing the RSOF discontinued section when I saw some of those avatars...

 

 

I mean, I knew phats looked bad on girls but I never thought THAT bad :rolleyes:

[Bloodstain]

Yeah I'm not 100%, I just remember something about the % of increase/decrease changing in one of them when the merchants switched

[Pete Party]

I am surprised that there still are so many rares, or there are really many% circulating on the market.

 

How many are there in total of each rare?

[PereGrin]

With no set GE value, what happens to coinshare? I read the referendum and it mentions removing the upper and lower price limits on the GE. This would kind of constantly change the value of items. How would coinshare split the cash if the value is always changing. Or maybe we will get a better loot system?

[green9090]

With no set GE value, what happens to coinshare? I read the referendum and it mentions removing the upper and lower price limits on the GE. This would kind of constantly change the value of items. How would coinshare split the cash if the value is always changing. Or maybe we will get a better loot system?

No limits doesn't mean no mid price. The mid price can (and presumably will) keep moving approximately daily according to completed trades. That price will be what CS gives.

 

It will, in fact, make coinshare work a lot better than it does now, because people will actually use the GE enough to get certain items to the price at which they belong. Right now coinsharing a divine is a waste of a few hundred mil, for example.

[Pete Party]

With no set GE value, what happens to coinshare? I read the referendum and it mentions removing the upper and lower price limits on the GE. This would kind of constantly change the value of items. How would coinshare split the cash if the value is always changing. Or maybe we will get a better loot system?

 

Average selling value.

[stonewall337]

With no set GE value, what happens to coinshare? I read the referendum and it mentions removing the upper and lower price limits on the GE. This would kind of constantly change the value of items. How would coinshare split the cash if the value is always changing. Or maybe we will get a better loot system?

 

Average price of items sold/bought over the past week would be one way.