3rd Age/Spirit shields/Phats Discussion

[999134]

The range body is worth more than any other pieces atm.

[green9090]

Now, onto the new armour, any of you pro nexers have an idea about the drop rate yet? Apperantly a good six man team should be able to get 0.50 kills per hour per person minimum.

 

So if we assume a drop rate of 1/100 (for any item), it takes 200 hours to get a pieces. That's quite a huge amount. With these assumptions, every piece should be at least 400m (2m/h figure, but if you use 3 or 4m, the number becomes 600-800m).

 

If we assume a drop rate of 1/50, every piece should be at least 200m. (400m at 4m/h)

 

Thoughts?

I imagine Torva will be a decent amount more than the ranger set(only real use is Nex??) and well, mage set won't probably have that much demand.(comparatively)

 

If free trade comes around, Torva will probably rocket to crazy heights and the range and mage set will increase a bit. So I wouldn't be surprised if the price for Torva inflates to accommodate the lower value of the range and mage sets. All speculation of course and it's obvious hard to tell at this point...

Ranged top is good for every monster you'd want the armor for basically (Bandos gwd, Zammy GWD sometimes, Nex, Corp...), ranged set is good for Corp, Arma, and Nex. Torva, on the other hand, is good for... Um... You'd use the helm and legs for Bandos I guess, or the set at Zammy for a protect magic solo. For warring, you'd want both, but Pernix would be better if you could only choose one. I can't think of any reason for Torva to end up the expensive one- it's just not that needed.

[Bangin_Blonde]

 

Thoughts? Took awhile to buy at those prices and wont sell at min

 

My opinion...

 

Santas dropped a whole lot, but only because once it starts to drop there is no stopping it. People freak out.

The same for the rise. Once people notice they are going back up again, they jump on the bandwagon.

 

 

It is risky though, because with free trade coming out in the distant future there will be a fair amount of older players returning with their rares they left dormant. Especially all the old pures with stacks of rares.

 

My friend who hasn't Played RS in over 5 years agreed that when free trade comes back, she'll go on there and let me have all her old rares. I'm stoked. =D>

[Estoc]

The times right now are pretty insecure, with free trade lurking around the corner. Lots of money can be made, but lots can be lost too. I'm personally playing it safe, and keeping most of my stuf fin cash, because of the deflation that is bound to kick in. I might miss out on some deals, but I'm pretty sure that in the long run, I will be fine.

 

Now, onto the new armour, any of you pro nexers have an idea about the drop rate yet? Apperantly a good six man team should be able to get 0.50 kills per hour per person minimum.

 

So if we assume a drop rate of 1/100 (for any item), it takes 200 hours to get a pieces. That's quite a huge amount. With these assumptions, every piece should be at least 400m (2m/h figure, but if you use 3 or 4m, the number becomes 600-800m).

 

If we assume a drop rate of 1/50, every piece should be at least 200m. (400m at 4m/h)

 

Thoughts?

 

That's using today's best money makers as a base, but wouldn't they lower due to deflation as well, possibly causing 2m/hr at nex to be one of the best money makers?

 

I really can't see these being anywhere near what divine is. 1/50 is just so much more common than divine, granted you need to get killcount and nex may take longer than corp, you're also more than 10x more likely to get an armor piece than a sigil. Also, unless some of the pieces fall a large amount in relation to the others, you don't have that chance of killing your lsp with a low valued drop like you do with arc/spec sigils at corp. Of course it's too early to tell for sure, but I'm fairly sure any of this new armor would be more desirable than one of the lower sigils.

[anonymouse_]

How much are ely/divine/green phat going for now?

[bedman]

Divine is between yellow and green. Yellow is around 800-900m?

 

I've seen somebody trying to sell elysian for 250m only.

[Star_Fox]

Divine is between yellow and green. Yellow is around 800-900m?

 

I've seen somebody trying to sell elysian for 250m only.

 

 

elys and disks are pratically worth nothing. I've already seen too many purp + ely/disk for pure cash.

[green9090]

Divine is between yellow and green. Yellow is around 800-900m?

 

I've seen somebody trying to sell elysian for 250m only.

 

 

elys and disks are pratically worth nothing. I've already seen too many purp + ely/disk for pure cash.

To be fair, purp is hurting badly as well- it's really close to GE price.

[Gradeskip]

This is awesome news for me! I want an ely and got 200m cash right now. :D

[Mrhouse]

This is awesome news for me! I want an ely and got 200m cash right now. :D

 

Seems like alot of people are waiting for free trade to buy their Ely's. I could see them being ~400m with free trade. At first atleast.

[ilovecuttingyews]

This is awesome news for me! I want an ely and got 200m cash right now. :D

Seems like alot of people are waiting for free trade to buy their Ely's. I could see them being ~400m with free trade. At first atleast.

Yeah, it seems to me that people are waiting for free trade, then are going to try to snipe some 'junk' like Ely's for cheap before they hit an equilibrium. The same concept holds for what I think will happen to partyhats. Those people who have bought them as investments will see free trade as a way to get their money's worth without having to deal with junk so they will all try to sell their hats as soon as free trade comes back, thus crashing the price. I guess it all depends on the true number of people who own phats for investments who want to get out compared to those people who want to buy them for -hopefully- a reduced price right after free trade.

[GlowinRedM]

Whats the general look on lower wearables (masks, santa) when free trade comes along? price crash more or...?

[Tact]

In my opinion, some items are overvalued on the GE because of how it works. Lower rares are some of them. Speculation drove up prices, while your investment was protected by the limit on how much prices could fall on a per day basis. That's how santas and masks pushed over the 100m mark.

 

With free trade coming back you don't get to have that cushy price floor anymore. Demand is crashing and it's difficult to tell what the true price of these lower rares are since they've been inflated for so long. I'm think there's going to a be a decent-sized crash following the implementation of free trade. A partial recovery is possible, but nothing guaranteed.

[Mike_Ike111]

In my opinion, some items are overvalued on the GE because of how it works. Lower rares are some of them. Speculation drove up prices, while your investment was protected by the limit on how much prices could fall on a per day basis. That's how santas and masks pushed over the 100m mark.

 

With free trade coming back you don't get to have that cushy price floor anymore. Demand is crashing and it's difficult to tell what the true price of these lower rares are since they've been inflated for so long. I'm think there's going to a be a decent-sized crash following the implementation of free trade. A partial recovery is possible, but nothing guaranteed.

 

That would make sense, but I think you underestimate just how much GP is in the game and how few rares there are. There really aren't as many lower rares in the market as people think. With the return of staking the amount of rares traded will go down even further because pures will grab hold of a good amount to stake and to wear since partyhats are way too expensive.

 

The current demand for lower rares is quite low, but only because the lower rares just crashed. They crashed because everybody paniced. People panic, people sell, the item goes down and down. However, with free trade I don't see rares ever going down. They never did before 2007: they always rose at a steady, slow pace.

[Tact]

In my opinion, some items are overvalued on the GE because of how it works. Lower rares are some of them. Speculation drove up prices, while your investment was protected by the limit on how much prices could fall on a per day basis. That's how santas and masks pushed over the 100m mark.

 

With free trade coming back you don't get to have that cushy price floor anymore. Demand is crashing and it's difficult to tell what the true price of these lower rares are since they've been inflated for so long. I'm think there's going to a be a decent-sized crash following the implementation of free trade. A partial recovery is possible, but nothing guaranteed.

 

That would make sense, but I think you underestimate just how much GP is in the game and how few rares there are. There really aren't as many lower rares in the market as people think. With the return of staking the amount of rares traded will go down even further because pures will grab hold of a good amount to stake and to wear since partyhats are way too expensive.

 

The current demand for lower rares is quite low, but only because the lower rares just crashed. They crashed because everybody paniced. People panic, people sell, the item goes down and down. However, with free trade I don't see rares ever going down. They never did before 2007: they always rose at a steady, slow pace.

I don't see how my assumption is any worse than yours. You assume that there will be enough wealthy additional accounts to absorb the rares that people bought expecting to profit, and are now dumping on the market.

 

Yes, it is partially panic but it's mainly the fact that these lower rares are overpriced. You had a positive feedback loop where the price rose, people predicted future price gains and tried to buy into the market, therefore causing the price to continue rising. The opposite is happening now. In addition, the rares market was never as calm as you make it out to be; yes, the general trend is upwards, however there was none of the steady pace. Lower rares were still affected by seasonal variations and other factors and could be quite volatile at times.

[Bladewing]

i think we could expect price levels to fall by at most 30%, based on the increase in price levels of items not affected by extraneous updates (curses - dragon bones, extremes - herbs) or the disappearing armor phenomenon (dharok's helments, verac's helmets, karil's tops, dragon claws). such items include planks, logs, and others.

 

that puts santas at 70m, disregarding speculation

 

how much did speculation factor into the price of lower rares (by this i mean short term investments counting on a "buyout")? and how much will speculation factor into rares after free trade? (by this i mean long term investments counting on "rares go up over time")

 

i would be surprised if, in one month, santas were below 60m

[Tact]

I hesitate to put make a prediction on where the price will be in a month. I don't personally consider rares to be in the same behavior category as "useful" items like armor and resources. With lower rares it's a bit of a gamble in that although the items are discontinued, I think their prestige factor has also been damaged pretty badly in the crash. You also have to keep in mind that they have real no use beyond looking nice and holding wealth.

 

However, rares of any type have one powerful force at their back. It's pretty much accepted as canon that whatever happens, rares will always continue to go up, to the point where this belief helps fulfill its own prophecy to a large degree.

[green9090]

However, rares of any type have one powerful force at their back. It's pretty much accepted as canon that whatever happens, rares will always continue to go up, to the point where this belief helps fulfill its own prophecy to a large degree.

It's also a sound assumption, economically speaking. Rares are incapable of entering the game while being capable of leaving, be it through loss on death, alching/dropping, or quitting accounts. Meanwhile, more people continually enter the game, increasing the ratio of people who would like to have a rare versus number of rares.

[Tact]

However, rares of any type have one powerful force at their back. It's pretty much accepted as canon that whatever happens, rares will always continue to go up, to the point where this belief helps fulfill its own prophecy to a large degree.

It's also a sound assumption, economically speaking. Rares are incapable of entering the game while being capable of leaving, be it through loss on death, alching/dropping, or quitting accounts. Meanwhile, more people continually enter the game, increasing the ratio of people who would like to have a rare versus number of rares.

I never said it wasn't. I'm just saying that the fact it's become so widely known and accepted has sped up the rise of rares even more.

 

ie. Whenever someone posts a question about any rare you always see the same response half a dozen times.

[MightyMuddy]

Not sure if this is the right place to ask, but do you guys think it would be worth making a thread for the prices of common items, like bandos, godswords, claws ect.

[aspeeder]

Not sure if this is the right place to ask, but do you guys think it would be worth making a thread for the prices of common items, like bandos, godswords, claws ect.

Pretty sure you can find the prices using the GE link from the rs homepage, you can ask about speculation for those items here but their prices are not that difficult to determine at the moment.

[Cyon]

Everyone's predicting a drop in Rare prices, I agree with that, but I don't think I've seen anyone mention returning players who may have quit in 07. I know rare staking was quite the market... if those players returned would the increased supply (potential supply I suppose) help the decrease in rare prices?

[MotherBrainII]

Any thoughts on the prices for 3a once free trade comes out?

[999134]

I think 3rd age will be hit hard by torva, why pay for an expensive useless item when you can have an almost equally expensive very useful item

[Estoc]

I think 3rd age will be hit hard by torva, why pay for an expensive useless item when you can have an almost equally expensive very useful item

 

Implying that Torva will fall below the price of 3rd age?