11-Dec-2012 - Player-Owned Ports

[Sumpta]

A small heads-up: I just sprung the resources for a jade rudder and it's hugely disappointing. Should have gotten a Judge of Dice instead.

[Hedgehog]

Buying Thai Tong

[Thorgmir]

20 isn't a very large set. I used to remember how to calculate the chance of your particular data set showing up but the statistics math for doing that has escaped my memory, and the correct term to google for some information isn't coming to mind.

 

Basically one can calculate how likely it is (given the known expected probability function) that you will achieve the results you did. 100 sets would be better. In either case two facts:

 

1) probability of each ship doesn't depend on any previous or future ships

2) it is random. You only achieve the expected result 80% success (if all ships sent at 80% listed) over the long term as a limit of approaching an infinite sample size.

 

Hence the data set you got sucks, but isn't necessarily improbable yet (sample size has to increase dramatically before you can really make that claim)

 

A sample size of 20 is much more than sufficient to know there's something funny going on. The appropriate statistical model is called a binomial distribution, and the probability of four or fewer successes in a binomial model with N = 16 (he didn't post results for the latest four) and p = 0.8 (the lowest success rate on any mission) is approximately 0.0000033. This constitutes ample evidence that something is not right.

[jayc3399]

No one has thought to ask the percentage your sending things out at. Since using the pop calculator on tip.it I very rarely send out a boat at less then 90% without rerolling any missions. For stats like that you'd have to be sending out ships with ~20% success.

[Thai_tong]

Basically one can calculate how likely it is (given the known expected probability function) that you will achieve the results you did.

 

From what I gather, you are noting what the game says your chance of success is and if you fail or succeed.

 

If from N trials the game says you have chances p₁, p₂, p₃, ..., p_N with average p

and from N trials your ship succeeds T times so that your overall success rate h is equal to T/N

 

The difference between your success rate and what the game says is |h-p|

You can find the chance of this difference occurring using confidence intervals.

 

If the theory that the game give the correct chance is true then the variance of the distribution is p-p²

If it is a coincidence that your data differs from the game then |h-p|= z*((p-p² )/N)^1/2

z= |h-p|*(N/(p-p²))^1/2

From your data you know the values of p, h and N so you can find the value of z

Next use this tool http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-normal-distribution-table.html

to find the % for your value of z

Make sure "0 to Z" is selected, not "Up to Z" or "Z onwards"

When you have found the percentage that corresponds to the value of z multiply it by 2 and subtract it from 1. The final figure is the likelihood that the actual chance of success is the same as what the game says.

For example if z= 2.2 then the percentage for that is 48.6% or 0.486

0.486*2= 0.972

1- 0.972= 0.028

There is a 2.8% chance that the actual chance is the same as what the game says

[Sy_Accursed]

Thing that is really getting on my nerves now is people in chat etc. being like:

I sent 2 voyages at 60% and succeeded but then sent 2 at 80% and failed. Great logic there Jagex!

 

It's like please go away now before I succumb to the desire to stab you!

2 succeeding at 60% and 2 failing at 80% is perfectly functioning success/failure on a small scale, just because you are more likely to succeed with a higher percent doesn't magically mean you will. Unless you send it at 0% or 100% then it is a perfectly logical result to come back as success or failure regardless of the percents.

 

I mean obviously sending at 1% failure is far more likely, but given the 1% exists it is still a perfectly logical result to succeed. Whilst equally sending at 99% success is far more likely, but the existence of the 1% again means it is perfectly logical to get a failure outcome.

[ilovecuttingyews]

If I use my special missions for the day, can I use an "adventurer reroll" and get another (like normal voyages)? Or is it only useful to get a different adventurer?

[Quest_Cape_K]

You can use an adventurer reroll after sending the others off and receive more, you can also get the same adventurer again, even if a mission for them is being done already.

[aerendil]

I dont bother re-rolling, as it waste a mission, and you have no garuntees your next one will be better... however, i dont like to send messages under 80%, which can be a pain when you are trying to get a merchant on a mission AND succeed it.. had a 95% chi globes fail last night which was amazingly annoying, as it was the first misson of them i've EVER had

[Quest_Cape_K]

Special mission voyages are done and then a reroll is used, gives new set of missions.

[Estoc]

Hook - 1 trade good per mission

Scythe - 2 trade goods per mission

Bowl - 4 trade goods per mission

Pincers - 8 trade goods per mission?

 

That would be 10 with the Scythe trader giving a 25% boost. Seems reasonable to me.

[strilmus]

it gets better if you have a double adventurer bonus since that pumps the number higher

 

you may also consider building those trade mission boosting totems

[Unknown_Warrior]

Captain from a parallel universe with switched hair colour and complexion and shitty stats:

 

[Saradomin_Mage]

Hook - 1 trade good per mission

Scythe - 2 trade goods per mission

Bowl - 4 trade goods per mission

Pincers - 8 trade goods per mission?

 

That would be 10 with the Scythe trader giving a 25% boost. Seems reasonable to me.

 

Hook 1 , Scythe 2, Bowl 3, Pincers probably 4.

The progression isn't very logical (more goods/hour in Scythe and Hook) but it's probably more likely that you'd find trade goods missions in the Bowl and Pincers, I'd randomly guess.

 

 

Also it seems like random event rewards are allocated to items you don't haven't maxed out once again.

[Blutters]

Anyone have "Quick Learner"? I'd assume it's just quicker XP gains but I'd like to know the details since the mission to gain it is has fairly high (triple 5.5k iirc) requirements. RSWiki doesn't list it but they do list "Fast Learner" which is 10%. I'm not really sure what use having either on a captain is though.

[chenw]

Hook - 1 trade good per mission

Scythe - 2 trade goods per mission

Bowl - 4 trade goods per mission

Pincers - 8 trade goods per mission?

 

That would be 10 with the Scythe trader giving a 25% boost. Seems reasonable to me.

 

Hook 1 , Scythe 2, Bowl 3, Pincers probably 4.

The progression isn't very logical (more goods/hour in Scythe and Hook) but it's probably more likely that you'd find trade goods missions in the Bowl and Pincers, I'd randomly guess.

 

 

Also it seems like random event rewards are allocated to items you don't haven't maxed out once again.

 

Which then begs the question of whether it is actually worth the trips to get trade goods over other things before you hit the highest regions.

[Urza285]

Renovated lodgings:

 

Daredevil's Lodgings:

 

I am currently 3k cherry wood and 6.7k jade from ship four.

 

When you got 70k+ chimes like me its better to reroll.

[Sbrideau]

Captain from a parallel universe with switched hair colour and complexion and shitty stats:

 

 

Funny how I got the same captain but with better stats. Been doing boats since yesterday since I just understood how it works yesterday so I don't have much good stats, but then again I tried it first when it came out but never understood it until I actually tried playing it lol.

[Noobzy]

Anyone have "Quick Learner"? I'd assume it's just quicker XP gains but I'd like to know the details since the mission to gain it is has fairly high (triple 5.5k iirc) requirements. RSWiki doesn't list it but they do list "Fast Learner" which is 10%. I'm not really sure what use having either on a captain is though.

 

I only have a captain with fast learner. Obviously it is not possible to check how it works as we don't have insight in experience gains for crew/captains. I assume it allows you to level up your captain quicker. I can't tell whether it actually works, 10% is not really a lot of difference.

 

Quick learner seems to me as if it could be better than fast learner, but not sure ofc.

[jayc3399]

I got a regular mission for a chi globe in the cherry wood region last night. I found this interesting as I only have fishing herblore and prayer past 90.

[Sy_Accursed]

I got a regular mission for a chi globe in the cherry wood region last night. I found this interesting as I only have fishing herblore and prayer past 90.

 

Pretty normal the adventurer reqs are for SPECIAL voyages for that good, they can all show up in normal voyages at anytime. The key difference being normal voyages have very low payout whilst the adventurer ones generally have higher making them the practical way to acquire them.

[jayc3399]

Interesting I had yet to see a trade good for someone I had not unlocked and im ~10% till the bowl.

 

Also just broke my streak of 9 days with no randoms >.<

[Urza285]

I caved and started buying 2/3 jade deck upgrades and a crew member. Guess ill keep plugging way until the pincers.

[Demoli]

You should probably get crew first in the Jade since they will give a good increase for low jade cost, while the ship upgrades will only provide 400+ (double decks) or 300+ (hull).

 

I should be getting daredevil lodgings today, maybe also nautical shipwright. After that I'll just stockpile cherrywood for the other upgrades.

[Urza285]

Yeah I'm sitting on 5k cherry wood I can't use for anything except maybe totems?