lock please

[daigotsu]

Some speculation on (market) speculation:

 

 

 

Here is a line I haven't seen discussed (emphasis mine): "...the ability to offer items to buy and sell..." What this suggests to me is a marketplace that will work very much like a stock market: people enter "buy orders," such as yew logs at 280, and "sell orders," such as yew logs at 300 -- depending on how it is implemented, sales will depend on finding a common ground between those sets of offered prices.

 

 

 

In such an environment, those with insane amounts of cash can attempt to manipulate the price of some resources; however, this will run afoul of two problems: (1) Some resources replenish themselves too quickly to be monopolized, and (2) Market manipulation leads to diminishing returns. As certain items are bought out and the market moves towards monopoly, the merchants who wish to monopolize may find themselves completely undercut by holdout sellers, so that the theoretical example of dragon platelegs suddenly rising to 5M each gets undercut by the people who see a chance to cash in at 4.8M, 4.6M, etc.

 

 

 

Skills that require consumable resources, such as Crafting, Herblore, Fletching, will have their median prices set by skillers with cash. Those on the road to 99 will be the trendsetters for the price of logs, herbs, hides, etc. Since there are dozens, if not hundreds of skillers competing for levels simultaneously, prices for resources may rise as demand outstrips new supply. If merchants attempt market manipulation in skill-resource markets, expect a rewriting of the demand curve as players decide they have better things to do than pay an idiot three times what an item usually goes for.

 

 

 

Skills that generate resources have the potential to become more popular, since it will be easier to find the market for those resources. Expect a new crop of dedicated Miners, Fishers, Woodcutters. If market manipulation is attempted here, expect merchanters to bankrupt themselves as they chase rising prices of resources in an attempt to monopolize.

 

 

 

"Finished goods" are likely to plummet or even out, particularly among the marginally useful items. Saradomin Brews are glutted on the market already due to the XP value of making them and the lack of general demand. Similarly, dragonhide sets are useful for a narrow range of levels and tend to even out at a price just above the cost of the hides. Prayer potions, super sets, cooked sharks, antifire potions are all useful items, but tend to be in high supply due to skiller training, so the prices are likely to even out. Should a particular type of finished good drop in supply, some price correction may occur, or skiller/moneymakers may increase their creation of the good to fill the gap.

 

 

 

"Scarce goods," such as Barrows, dragon items, and so forth will likely be more subject to manipulation -- but this will encourage more people to seek out the items via killing the appropriate monsters. Yes, short-term demand may skyrocket, as will prices, but people will chase these items themselves if the opportunity cost is too high.

 

 

 

Rares are already a vanishing good. With no additional items coming into market, the price is subject to whatever depredations the merchants can muster. Expect these prices to be subject to the general cash supply, as they are now. Some attempted monopolization may occur, but will either turn the rare market into a "members only" club, or be thwarted by other merchants acting in "reverse manipulation." Monopolies don't really matter when no one can play, or if someone with more money than you decides your game isn't worth playing anymore.

 

 

 

The worst potential point of market manipulation is what I term "scarce goods" -- and the consequence of this is likely to be more players deciding to make do with "lesser items" until they get lucky themselves.

 

 

 

I expect the initial implementation of this to have the same odd shakedown as the "infinite items" shops. Certain points of manipulation will crop up (team scamming on unusual items seems like it might still have room to work), but I expect Jagex either is already accounting for some of it, or will need to introduce safeguards as quick updates after the fact.

 

 

 

In all honesty, I expect the biggest unexpected winners from this marketplace to be resource autoers and the apocryphal "Chinese gold farmers" -- they can successfully undercut every possible seller, still make cash, and then go on to sell the virtual cash for the real thing.

[darkpoet837]

here is the thing i want to know...can past members that are currently f2p sell members items from thier bank with this?

 

 

 

If you could, it would be great.

 

 

 

Also, is this for members only (please jagex, do NOT make this P2P only)?

[cynder]

I think everyone should be more worried about prices. For instance before a lot of people would sell items at edge such as prayer pots for 9k, while other people would sell them for 7k in fally.

 

 

 

As shown in other games, merch still works because people at time still sell things for way to cheap in the AH to just get the cash fast, when you can resell it a bit slower but make a lot more money.

[warren211]

I don't think it would ruin them. It has its goods, it has drawbacks. The good part is you can put your offer and go do something productive. The bad news is that because of all the offers, anturally there has to be a way to organize them. Maybe Jagex will input an organizing system that organizes by price? if so, naturally people would go for the cheapest if theyre buying or the highest if they're selling. People in the middle wouldn't get sales. So it will probably halt merchanting for a while until prices are adjusted to suit merchants and players, but i'm sure it won't be horrible.

[qeltar]

 

when you can earn 1 burger king hat then you have a right to comment on them, but down talking something you will never have in a million years, despite wanting it or not is rather childish.

 

 

 

Since I'm not a braggart like yourself, I never talk about what I own or what I could buy. And I refuse to answer when people ask me.

 

 

 

Therefore, you have absolutely no way of knowing what I could or could not afford to buy. Right?

 

 

 

It fits well in the pattern of the greed-obsessed merchant, however, that you immediately attempt to place yourself as being somehow superior because you assume I couldn't afford to buy a silly hat. It is this exact attitude that causes overzealous merchants and other insecure ego-driven twits to be despised.

 

 

 

~q

[Zilla]

Im glad merchanting will suffer, They make things go down in price, they actually make it go down more then bots at times.

[satriales]

I've only recently got back into Runescape after about a year and a half away from it and the one thing I thoguht would be good was an Auction House so I'm very happy to hear there is one coming this month :)

 

 

 

I think the big reason why this won't hurt merchanting is because when you sell an item it will be visible to everyone on every server. It should also offer the possibility of spotting bargains and then reselling them for a profit.

[fighterhwk]

Only thing I'm worried about with this update is if it's going to be p2p only...I really hope f2p also gets a chance to participate in this! :D

[Kilo]

Even if it does, who really would feel concerned about merchants except merchants themselves?

 

 

 

I mean its not like a barrower is going to be like " wow I feel bad for those merchants" no, a barrower wouldn't give it the slightest overlook. Why? because this will eliminate the middle man (merchant) in most situations. The only time I think it would help a merchanter is if someone is desperate, otherwise I think most prices of things are going to finally stay stabilized because no one will really care if they sell it quickly or not because they don't have to stand there for hours trying to sell something.

[Saru Inc]

EDIT: Nvm. I read the article. :-w

 

 

 

No actually, I don't think it will affect it that much, because people may want the money\item right then and there, and not want to wait around for it.

[Aquashock]

I'm thinking that many people will quit for this update. There are plenty of people who play the game simply to merchant, much like the people who play simply to skill, or simply to pk.

 

 

 

Although, my personal opinion is different. There are many games with similar marketplaces, not just WoW, and it surely was not the first. I personally cant wait for it, now longer will I have to set 30 minutes aside to get into world 2 and sell my drop thats worth just enough to sell, but not enough to sell fast. I can't wait :o

[Gold_Tiger10]

I hope this does kill merchanting

[qeltar]

Again, the demonizing of all merchants reveals both bias and ignorance.

 

 

 

For example, Kilo raises the example of Barrowers hating middlemen. Okay, fine. But they don't HAVE to use them, so why do they? Easy, because merchants let them get cash fast.

 

 

 

There's really nothing wrong with that sort of merchanting.

 

 

 

Also consider merchants who aggregate small amounts of items. For example, people complain about merchants who buy snap seeds for 30k each and sell them for 40k each. Well, the reason they do that is that they buy them 1 or 2 at a time and sell them 100 at a time. They save the people who want lots of seeds time, and time is money. There will always be a market for this sort of merchanting.

 

 

 

Things aren't always black and white.

[TheAncient]

Barrows prices will rise because sellers no longer have to push down prices to desperately get the cash they want, and people will still be willing to buy them at those prices.

 

Commodity prices will stabilize.

 

No more arbitrage across servers.

 

Godsword prices will go up due to merchanters.

 

DBone prices plummet... there will be so many bot sellers of those.

 

TT items will more likely raise in price.

[Solidus_77]

This update will replace the role of some merchants, it will have an effect but probably not destroy them. It all depends on how widely it's used.

[PastyGangsta]

This update wont ruin merchanting, but it will change it. It should actually boost merchanting, and there will be less scammers, autotypers, lurers, and pretty much every type of moron you can think of, in the worlds.

 

 

 

No more morons! =D> Jagex! =D>

[goldbaloney]

why dont we wait and see whats its like before trying to figure out what will happen?

[qeltar]

Barrows prices will rise because sellers no longer have to push down prices to desperately get the cash they want, and people will still be willing to buy them at those prices.

 

 

Sorry, doesn't work that way. Sellers and buyers will both find it easier, so there is no reasonable way to conclude that prices will rise.

 

 

Commodity prices will stabilize.

 

No more arbitrage across servers.

 

 

Agree about arbitrage, that's the point. I see no evidence one way or the other about commodity prices.

 

 

Godsword prices will go up due to merchanters.

 

DBone prices plummet... there will be so many bot sellers of those.

 

TT items will more likely raise in price.

 

Again, these seem like baseless speculation to me.

 

 

 

~q

[wioneo]

I'm assuming that you'll be able to see everybody's selling prices at the same time, so there will be very little room for price fluctuation. I'm pretty sure that this will get rid of merchanting all together. I'm more worried about everywhere being crowded. People will be wasting much less time standing in one place and much more time skilling/killing. I think that I'll train hunter a bit more before the update...

[Evil_Sabre]

why dont we wait and see whats its like before trying to figure out what will happen?

 

 

 

beacuse we are here to discuss things, hence the name general discussion

 

 

 

I can't wait to see how its set-up, I hope they don't just bunch everything up with no organization, should be very intresting and i'm definitly looking forward to this update

[icecube]

Barrows prices will rise because sellers no longer have to push down prices to desperately get the cash they want, and people will still be willing to buy them at those prices.

 

Commodity prices will stabilize.

 

No more arbitrage across servers.

 

Godsword prices will go up due to merchanters.

 

DBone prices plummet... there will be so many bot sellers of those.

 

TT items will more likely raise in price.

 

Oh man... I forgot about bots.

[wioneo]

Another thing, I'm going to hold off on using this for a while just to make sure that there are no serious glitches. I wonder if worlds 1-9 will still always be full...

[cyco]

Hopefully it does, so it doesn't take 30 minutes to get into to world 2 to buy something.

[Quelch]

This update is by far the greatest thing that's ever happened to Runescape, for those of you who have never played WoW, the Auction House was God. Merchanting can still be done with the Great Exchange, people who need money quickly sell at low prices, believe me, we are going to feel nothing but happiness the day this update comes out.

[Ickle]

I have only just discovered the wonders of merchenting so i hope it dosnt ruin it.

 

 

 

However picture item "A". The street price of item "A" is 1.9-2.4 mil.

 

Under the grand exchange there might be something like

 

Item A

 

1.9

 

1.9

 

1.95

 

1.95

 

2.0

 

2.0

 

2.1

 

2.5

 

 

 

you will probably be able to sort by cheapest price.

 

Now If I am trying to merch item "A" then I would buy it for 1.9 and simply repost it for higher. One big factor would be the refresh times of the grand exchange.

 

 

 

I really dont knwo what to make of it. I will have to wait and see :-k